Politics is not without its paradoxes. But Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan always tries to create paradoxes of a special kind, some of which are ironic and others are resentful. Despite the moral proposition of his policies that he promotes, reality exposes the deviations of that proposition and reveals his opportunistic tendencies to achieve pragmatic goals and interests with extreme Machiavellianism.

Erdogan builds his policies according to an Islamic vision that stems from his past dreams as a “caliph” under the umbrella of “neo-Ottomanism.” Hence, it provides political Islam with safe havens, as happened with members of the “Brotherhood” involved in violent crimes and incitement after they fled Egypt in 2013, and gave some of them media outlets to promote politically suspicious goals based on violence. In addition to “colonial” ambitions emerging in northern Syria, Libya and elsewhere.

Türkiye and its “marriage of convenience” with Israel

This alliance that Erdogan establishes with the political Islam movement and gives him the opportunity for “Sunni leadership” makes him involved in many contradictions. His populist speeches in support of Palestine and hosting the leaders of the Hamas movement on Turkish soil clash with the fact that his country is the first Islamic country to recognize Israel. It is true that this matter has historical considerations and a different ancient context, but the Turkish president did not stop the wheel of trade and economic interests with Tel Aviv for a moment after his chest became tight or he felt a prick in his conscience because a Palestinian was waiting for him, for example, with the weapons of soldiers in the Israeli army. Indeed, since his Justice and Development Party came to power and rule, trade relations between Turkey and Israel have witnessed a huge, unprecedented boom and leaps.

The irony is that, according to UNRWA, Turkey does not occupy a prominent place on the list of countries providing aid and support to Palestine. By reviewing the reports of the United Nations, you will find that the countries whose political noise and clamor increases, their role in practice decreases in depth.

In the period between 2002 and 2022, the same period in which Erdogan’s party became politically empowered and took power, trade between Ankara and Tel Aviv increased about six times. In the first year, official data issued by the Turkish Statistics Authority says that Turkish exports to Israel reached about 861.4 million dollars and doubled to an unprecedented amount of 6.74 billion dollars in the last year. The total value of imports from Israel to Turkey reached about $544.5 million.

During 2021, Turkey intensified its efforts to restore relations with many of its regional neighbours. It can be said that the developments that have occurred in the international arena; Especially the Biden administration assuming power in Washington, and concerns about Iranian regional activity and the survival of the Syrian government, i.e. the “Assad regime,” in power, have constituted an incentive for this shift in Turkish foreign policy, according to the “Washington Institute,” and the escalating economic crisis has also prompted Ankara to improve its relations. With the UAE, Israel and Saudi Arabia in order to better strengthen regional economic relations. Ankara and Tel Aviv moved to look at the common interests that push them towards cooperation and take care of their common interests in the form of a “marriage of convenience” in the face of the axes that are currently forming in the region.

Two international developments contributed to strengthening Turkish-Israeli cooperation: Bashar al-Assad’s consolidation of his regime and authority and the continuation of Iranian influence in Syria, as the American Institute explains. In the same context, the United States of America’s exemption of the agreement, which provides for the delivery of Egyptian gas from Syria and electricity from Jordan to Lebanon, from the sanctions imposed on it under the “Caesar Act” and its obtaining the green light to reactivate and work with the agreement again, can be read as another indication of Washington’s move toward… Replacing the equation of overlapping economic institutional cooperation between allies and adversaries, and this is what pushes all countries, not just Ankara and Tel Aviv, to redraw the features of their diplomatic relations.

He continued: “In contrast to the previous Donald Trump administration, the Joe Biden administration adopted a more fair and balanced approach to the Israeli-Palestinian issue compared to its predecessor. The current US administration has indicated its intention to reopen the US Consulate in East Jerusalem and has re-injected aid to the Palestinian Authority after a large portion of it was frozen by the Trump administration. US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, has also met with the Palestinian President in more than one meeting. This rapprochement by the Biden administration towards the Palestinian Authority, along with the Israeli elections held in March 2021, which ended the 12-year rule of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and brought in a more moderate coalition government, provided a suitable platform for Turkey to repair its relations with Israel after “It affirmed its commitment to the establishment of a Palestinian state.”

Erdogan and the equality between “Hamas and Israel”

It is noteworthy that Erdogan, whose political tone varied after the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip following the Hamas attacks on Israel on October 7 last year, is seeking to play a mediating role between the parties to the crisis and gain new ground as he is part of the regional equation and a party that can be relied upon. This is what made him face several exciting paradoxes, some of which he tries to hide and deny their occurrence, and others that he only manages to confuse through “electronic flies” and his media apparatus. As for press information regarding Turkey sending a ship loaded with aid to Israel within a few weeks of the start of the war, specifically ten days after, the government was quick to deny it.

But Erdogan’s conciliatory political tone, which his supporters see as “balanced,” favors what he is trying to deny and exclude, and that relations are normal between the two parties and exist without violent fluctuations. Erdogan’s official speech was attacking and condemning civilian casualties without mentioning which civilians he meant in the conflict, and here he equates between Hamas and Israel, but rather emphasizes its openness to all parties to the crisis to end the war and find a settlement.

Official Turkish reports reveal that Israel is among the five most prominent markets for investment and trade exchange for Turkey.

The political tone changed after Israel targeted the Baptist Hospital, but at the same time he called on the Palestinians to stop what he described as “their harassment against civilian residential communities in Israel.”

The Ottoman Empire that Erdogan dreams of “is the one under which Turkey recognized Israel in 1949 and granted its citizenship to David Ben-Gurion, the founder of the Hebrew state, and he spoke its Turkish language.” This is a history lesson that means a lot to Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is aware of the facts of history, the complexities of reality, and the requirements of interest to cross the future safely.

Therefore, Turkish official reports reveal that Israel is among the five most prominent markets for investment and trade in Turkey, reaching unprecedented numbers in 2016 at a value of $4.2 billion, a number that doubled in the following year to about 14 percent. In October 2022, that is, during the period of political and field disputes between the Hamas movement in Gaza and Israel, trade and warm relations brought Ankara and Tel Aviv together on the basis of interest, despite Erdogan’s appearance on the United Nations platform repeating his extremist and inflammatory speeches against Israel to gain false legitimacy or Creating false glory about the championships he imagines, and the Israeli Minister of Economy and Industry, Orna Barbivai, left on Tuesday morning for Turkey on her first visit after the severing of relations in 2009.

Allegations regarding business relationships

Figures from the Ministry of Tourism also reveal a permanent increase in the number of Israeli tourists to Turkey. This means that the alleged hate speech from Erdogan and his regime has no effect in Israel, which will inevitably prevent travel to countries that are unsafe for its citizens, and will urge its citizens to avoid these hostile capitals. But the truth is that the year 2022 witnessed an increase of about five and a half times over the previous year in the number of arrivals from Israel, and it rose to more than 631 thousand.

The Turkish Minister of Trade, Omar Polat, claimed that trade between his country and Tel Aviv would not be disrupted because these activities related to trade and economic exchange are managed through companies and institutions in the private sector and not the government sector. Under popular pressure and questions in parliament from opposition forces, he also claimed that trade relations had declined by 48 percent since the outbreak of the war. The Turkish minister said: “Trade from our country – to Israel – is not carried out by government companies, but by private companies, many of which are international companies, and in Turkey, 31 percent of our exports are carried out by international companies that have made direct investments in Turkey.”

Just as the Palestinian keffiyeh appears on the shoulder of the Turkish president and disappears sometimes, what is constant is the growth of his relations with Israel despite the apparent policy that tries to prove the opposite and says that war between them is imminent while they are at the peak of fullness and political, financial, economic and commercial flow. Despite the boycott of Israeli products announced by Parliament, official data, including the report of the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Turkish Exporters Association, confirm the continued steady arrival of products from Israel to Turkish markets. After the outbreak of war between Israel and the Hamas movement, Turkish journalist Metin Cihan tweeted that there were more than 253 ships moving in the waters from Turkey to Israel, carrying a variety of goods, including crude oil, fuel, and iron.

The statements of Turkish officials about the decline in commercial and economic dealings with Israel since the outbreak of the war seem like lies falling in the air, especially since documented foreign reports reveal their falsity, as Bloomberg said in a statement that one million barrels of Azerbaijani oil were transferred to Israel from Turkish port of Ceyhan.

The tanker, called “Seavolit,” carrying one million barrels of Azerbaijani oil, also departed from the port of Ceyhan to the Israeli port of Eilat on October 21. The report says that the 900-meter-long tanker named Seavolet, which left the port of Ceyhan, carried more than one million barrels of Azerbaijani oil to Israel. Although the tanker is officially heading to the Jordanian port of Aqaba, some sources (who spoke to Bloomberg, as stated in the report) confirmed that the barrels purchased by the “Paz Oil” company will be delivered to the port of Eilat in Israel.

She continued, “According to the data analysis company Kpler, Israel has not used the port of Eilat for oil imports for several years. However, the Eilat-Ashkelon Pipeline Company (EAPC) has built a 263-kilometer pipeline from Eilat to Ashkelon to transport crude oil to a refinery near Ashkelon. Since the Israeli port of Ashkelon was damaged in the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, the port of Eilat on the Red Sea has been used to transport oil. This situation shows that Israel is able to continue its oil imports without interruption despite the ongoing conflicts with Hamas.”

Meanwhile, the Turkish newspaper Zaman quoted the American agency as saying that a statement issued on October 18 by the UK-based P&I Club, an international insurance company specializing in commercial ships, stated that the oil port in Ashkelon was “under constant threat of missile attack.” “.

So, the increase in the volume of Turkish exports to Israel reached about 35 percent at the end of last year, and this is what the government denies under the weight of severe criticism and opposition that exposes its pragmatic policy, its fabricated positions, and its movements that hide the facts, financial portfolios, economic interests, and efforts for regional influence under false slogans. At the beginning of this year, the Turkish opposition newspaper “Kar” headlined its front page by saying, “Exports to Israel double and do not decrease.” The same applies to the Sozcu newspaper, which said: “They condemn Israel in the streets, but at the same time they increase the volume of trade with Israel.”

Improvement in relationships

The year 2022 witnessed a significant improvement in Turkish-Israeli relations, culminating in the return of full diplomatic relations between the two countries and the exchange of ambassadors last August. The past two years have also witnessed security and intelligence cooperation between the two countries, according to the Emirates Policy Centre, which has succeeded in thwarting Iranian attempts to take revenge on Israel, by targeting Israeli citizens present in Turkey. The return of relations between the two countries was also reflected in the trade relations between them. During the year 2022, trade exchange between the two countries reached $8 billion (compared to $6.7 billion in 2021), and the number of Israeli tourists to Turkey reached its peak in 2022, as their number reached approximately 800,000 tourists, compared to about 570,000 in the year. 2019 before the Corona pandemic.

The “reconciliation” initiative between the two countries came primarily from Turkey, to achieve Turkish interests, strategic and economic, as part of the Turkish trend in formulating a new vision based on ending the state of conflict and tension between it and the countries of the region, as the Emirates Policy Center says in a report entitled: From confrontation to reconciliation: Turkish-Israeli relations after Erdogan won a third term“, The Abrahamic Accords were a driving factor for this Turkish trend, as these agreements contributed to changing the regional map, and Turkey responded to this change by restoring and improving its relations with the countries of the region, especially the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt, in addition to Israel. After the results of the second round of the Turkish presidential elections were announced on May 28, both the President of the State of Israel, Isaac Herzog, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called Erdogan to congratulate him on his victory, and to confirm the Israeli government’s desire to “develop relations between the two countries.” A visit was arranged for Netanyahu to Ankara to confirm the continued improvement and development of relations.

The “absence of Israel and Palestine” from Erdogan’s electoral campaign was one of the indicators of the path of rapprochement between the two countries, as Erdogan did not attack Israel as he did in his previous election campaigns, nor did he use it to attract a group of Turkish voters to him. Rather, Israel and the Palestinian issue were absent from Erdogan’s electoral discourse. This matter was considered an indication of Erdogan’s keenness to continue relations between the two countries even after his election, according to the Emirati Center.

Indeed, since the restoration of relations between the two countries and the exchange of ambassadors again, events have taken place in the West Bank, Gaza Strip and Jerusalem in the past two years in which Turkish criticism of Tel Aviv was, from the Israeli perspective, diplomatic and acceptable, according to the Emirates Policy Center. The formation of the new Turkish government, especially the appointment of the head of the Turkish Intelligence Agency, Hakan Fidan, to the position of Foreign Minister, also indicated that Erdogan would continue his regional policy in general, and towards Israel in particular, as the new Foreign Minister was responsible for restoring Turkish-Israeli relations.