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W6nnews.com ==== وطن === تاريخ النشر – 2023-11-29 09:21:00
With the end of the basic truce and its extension by two days, and in contrast to the consensus in the past regarding war without stopping, discussions are increasing within Israel about its future. According to the Haaretz newspaper, the Israelis appear to be divided over the question of whether to continue the battle or a deal that includes a long truce. Today, after seven weeks of fighting, Israel and Hamas are interested, each for its own purposes, in extending the truce. The former wants to recover as many detainees as possible, as a result of internal pressures and considerations of the Israelis’ immunity and invulnerability, and to restore their confidence in themselves, the state, and the future, in addition to the desire for rest. This is also vital for the latter, which desires to give itself, and the Gazans, a chance to breathe and stop the war now, after the October 7 plan on its part succeeded, and without the Israeli declared goals being achieved. In recent days, Haaretz newspaper revealed warnings that reached the Israeli military and political leadership, and no one heeded them, but on the fifty-second day of the war, and in light of increasing questions about the fate of the men and soldiers detained in Gaza, the debate is increasing in Israel about what is farther and greater than the truce, about the future of this war, as well as the day after it, with the continuation of psychological warfare and the spreading of fog around it. In addition to fears about the northern front, and about economic losses estimated at 10% of the Israeli national product, questions arise about the extent of continued American support (while downplaying the importance of the European position so far) and about the consequences of a military campaign in the south of the Gaza Strip on both the Israeli and Palestinian sides. Between the officially announced and unannounced, and publicly, Israel says, through its politicians and military spokesmen, that successive truces will not stop the war until its goals of taking away the military and authoritarian capabilities of the Hamas movement are achieved: restoring all detainees, and preventing the building of a new security threat in Gaza. However, Israeli reports, leaks and insinuations reveal a division within the occupation government over the question “deal or fight?”, as prominent Israeli political commentator Nahum Barnea explains today, when he says that the first four days of the ceasefire deal indicate that the agreement is working despite the “war of nerves,” and that the question is what is the next stage; Continue releasing the kidnapped or resuming the fire? Barnea reveals, in an analysis published by Yedioth Ahronoth today, that there is a discussion on this question in the middle of the security-political mini-ministerial council, and that the conflict, in the coming days, will be between two contradictory trends; The first is led by a section of ministers and supports the continuation of deals in the hope of liberating as many detainees as possible, and the second is led by the Minister of Security and the army leadership seeking to renew the fighting. While Netanyahu declares contradictory positions on this issue. It is noteworthy here that the military affairs analyst in the newspaper “Haaretz”, Amos Harel, claimed the opposite, yesterday, by saying that, contrary to the impression left by some statements, the Israeli army does not have any sense of urgency to continue the ground operation immediately. Firstly, the agreement reached by the government speaks of a maximum period of an additional week, before returning to fighting, in the event that it is possible, during which, additional kidnapped persons can be recovered. Secondly, despite the risks associated with postponing the continuation of the ground operation (which is the return of movement “Hamas must organize its ranks, arm and equip its forces, and make changes to its military preparations. The army needs time to reactivate its forces and prepare them for the next stage.” An Israeli dilemma. After pointing out Hamas’ commitment to the agreement, Barnea addresses the Israeli claims, which have been made since the beginning of the war, that the ground incursion serves the two goals of destroying “Hamas” and recovering the kidnapped people. He says: “Maybe they were right, and maybe not. Now, while the deal is being implemented according to the agreement, these allegations have become irrelevant. The cabinet has to decide what the next stage is; Continue releasing kidnapped persons or renew the fire? The decision is not easy, but the minimum required of the political and military leadership is to tell the truth to the Israelis: Do they return to putting the fighting at the top of the agenda, as it was in recent weeks, or continue to place “the release of the kidnapped” at the forefront, as they used to say this week. Unfortunately, the leadership refrains from presenting the dilemma to the Israelis as it is. The war against Hamas in the center and south of the Gaza Strip is different from the fighting in the north and in Gaza City, in light of the presence of two million people today living in the streets, and it is difficult to level entire cities with air and ground bombardment. Fighting inside residential areas is difficult, and it results in human losses for both sides that burden Israel in the world.” The reality is less prosperous, and Barnea confirms that the reality on the ground is less prosperous than the Israelis had wished: 52 days have passed, and “Hamas” still controls some areas in the northern Gaza Strip, and the place where “Hamas” publicly released the detainees in the northern Gaza Strip indicates this. The revelation that Israel has made contacts with Washington, the United Nations, and international organizations to build a tent city on the coast Gaza Barnea adds, regarding a possible future scenario: “According to my understanding, the war in the center and south of the Strip will be selective and specific, and it can begin after two or three weeks. Currently, the kidnapped people are being recovered, and no one can guarantee that detention conditions will not deteriorate inside Gaza, and therefore the responsibility requires the recovery of whoever is available, with all the costs involved, as this is what a state can provide to citizens it has neglected.” Mixing accounts of the past and the present, Barnea recommends lowering the ceiling of expectations, and says that “instead of coming out daily with “high-spirited” statements about destroying “Hamas,” he would prefer to lower the tone, because it does not only introduce the Israelis into confusion, but also the Americans. And also the Egyptians and Qataris, whom we need to mediate, as credibility is vital in the negotiations.” Like other commentators, such as Harel in “Haaretz,” Barnea considers that “the ceasefire is important for Hamas, but it is also useful for the Israeli army, in terms of correcting mistakes and filling in what is missing.” He adds: “The ceasefire allows us to discuss questions that have accompanied us since October 7, especially the question of the next day.” “There is great doubt whether this government will be able to make a decision about the desired reality in Gaza after the situation there stabilizes.” Like other observers, Barnea also believes that the ceasefire provides the Israelis with an opportunity to examine with a clear mind the question of the mistakes and failures that led to October 7, especially since what Haaretz newspaper revealed, in recent days, about warnings that reached the military and political leadership, and no one heeded them, is a terrifying revelation. Pointing out, “There are Israeli parties today trying to postpone as much as possible these two issues: a vision for the future of Gaza, in addition to those responsible for the catastrophic failure. It is forbidden to submit to these parties for a simple reason: every decision taken today regarding Gaza must take into account the future. In the world they understand this, and in Israel they ignore it.” Barnea joins Israeli observers who fear mixing the calculations of the Israeli leadership, and says that he hopes that its desire to atone for failure in the past will not affect its decisions in the present. Division among the Israelis. For his part, the military analyst in the newspaper “Haaretz” explains that Israel’s stuttering over the option of launching a new campaign in the southern Gaza Strip is producing tension between it and US President Biden. Explaining that Israel’s lack of clear answers about the humanitarian consequences of a military campaign in the southern Gaza Strip increases tension between it and the United States. He refers to internal Israeli pressure by saying that Netanyahu promised the “Religious Zionism” party not to extend the truce for more than ten days, suggesting that tension will also increase among the Israelis themselves, between those who call for searching for every possible opportunity to recover detainees, and those who warn against losing the motivation to continue the battle, and thus help “Hamas” to remain in power. Harel also reveals polls currently being conducted, which show division among Israelis. He says that despite the joy, there are many Israelis who stress the need to renew the offensive campaign, claiming that the “psychological warfare” waged by Hamas would increase support for a more severe ground campaign. Harel, who had previously warned from the beginning of the difficulty of achieving the declared goals of the war, explains today that Israel wants to conduct a military campaign in the southern Gaza Strip, especially Khan Yunis, to undermine the capabilities of Hamas and its leadership, but the problem it faces is the presence of a large amount of civilians, which hinders aerial bombardment. It reveals that Israel has made contacts with Washington, the United Nations, and with global international organizations to build a tent city on the Gaza coast, and points again to the role of Israeli stuttering about the potential humanitarian effects of a military campaign on the southern Gaza Strip in increasing tensions with America. He added: “Biden has previously said that Arab leaders wish to overthrow Hamas, and he continues to support Israel, but the Americans are concerned about several Israeli steps: the determination to launch a new military campaign in the south, the settlers’ attacks inside the West Bank, and the threats of some ministers to open a war in the north, in addition to Israel’s refusal to discuss the next day’s question.” He confirms that the Israeli security establishment is initially examining plans for the future of the Strip, including Gulf and Egyptian support to rebuild the Strip, with a new leadership, noting that Netanyahu fears this, and is concerned about the possibility of Washington and Riyadh exploiting the war to put forward a two-state settlement project. He continues: “The Netanyahu government rejects the idea, and on the other hand, Israel needs continued support from Washington, which is willing to discuss issues of concern to it as well.” Israelis: What will emerge from this war is essentially revenge, arrogant talk, and a better deal that could have been achieved since the time of the energy of revenge. With the continuation of the exchange process and the extension of the truce, the debate is increasing within Israel between those who warn of the consequences of stopping the war now on its prestige and its deterrent power in the eyes of its enemies and the confidence of its citizens in it, and those who want to exhaust every opportunity to recover the kidnapped people, as a central goal of the war, with some few voices calling for its end. In an article published by “Haaretz” newspaper, Israeli law professor Yedediah said yesterday that the ransom of an Israeli is a very great value, but exchange deals are a mistake because they serve a number of citizens and sacrifice national security interests. For his part, the political analyst for the Hebrew Radio expressed his reservations “about the price of the truces by saying that it will be difficult to maintain psychological readiness and the energy that pushes us towards more fighting, which is hidden in the feeling of hatred, malice and revenge for the atrocities that Hamas committed on the seventh of October.” Dr. Michael Millstein, a lecturer in Middle Eastern studies at Tel Aviv University, an expert on Palestinian affairs, warns that Yahya Sinwar will attack Israel first, and surprise it again, if he is convinced that the chances of a return to fighting are greater than a ceasefire, suggesting that Hamas is also taking advantage of the truce now for military preparations. In an interview with Hebrew Public Radio, Millstein called on Israel to maintain the initiative and remain vigilant, even though Hamas is interested in a ceasefire. He continued: “I do not think that Sinwar is surprised by the Israeli military reaction. He has an ideological vision, and he views life from a religious historical perspective, but he wants a long-term ceasefire. He is neither crazy nor psychologically disturbed, as Israeli commentators say.” On the other hand, Israeli filmmaker and commentator Beit Michael accuses Israel of committing atrocities in Gaza, similar to what Hamas committed on October 7. He says, in an article published by “Haaretz” today, that this is a war of ego that Israel launched out of a feeling of insult and “ego” calculations, and not the calculations of logic and reason. Beit Mikhail asserts that “there are two certain results of this war: a black stain on Israel’s forehead, after a stupid destruction operation in Gaza in which it joined Hamas at the height of evil, and transferring international criticism to Israel. The second result: the destruction of Gaza will be a model for the settlers who want to displace the Palestinians of the West Bank and the interior.” He says that what will emerge from this war is essentially revenge, arrogant talk, and a better deal that could have been achieved a long time ago. Share this topic: Related Posts
