سوريا – The implications of the “center of gravity” and the future of the American role in Syria

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سوريا – The implications of the “center of gravity” and the future of the American role in Syria

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W6nnews.com  ==== وطن === تاريخ النشر – 2026-05-24 11:08:00

Enab Baladi – Shaaban Shamiya Between the corridors of the US Senate and the events of the Syrian field, the features of an unprecedented political and military phase are taking shape, as the testimony of the Commander of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), Admiral Charles Bradford Cooper II, came to reformulate the American position in the region, placing Syria at the heart of the international strategy as a “center of gravity” in the war against the “Islamic State” organization that cannot be bypassed. In this report, Enab Baladi discusses the security dimensions of the Centcom commander’s statement, in addition to the implications of timing, the change in diplomatic discourse, the prospects for sustainable support for Damascus, and the expected scenarios for the future of the American military and security presence. Strategic dimensions and concerns: The researcher and political analyst specializing in Middle East issues, Eva J. In an interview with Enab Baladi, Koulouriotis said that despite the American-Israeli war against Iran and its agents in the region, Washington still views Sunni jihadist organizations, led by ISIS, as a source of danger to its international and internal security. Koulouriotis added that there are also those who believe that the paths of these two “threats,” Iran and its agents on the one hand, and jihadist groups on the other, may intersect at some point, as happened previously in more than one case. The researcher said that after the American war against the Taliban, Al-Qaeda in Afghanistan previously took refuge inside Iranian territory. Likewise, Iraqi Shiite groups linked to Tehran cooperated with Sunni jihadist organizations in Iraq after the US invasion and the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime. The Islamic Group in Lebanon also coordinates its military movements in the south with Hezbollah. From Koulouriotis’ point of view, Washington believes that the war against Iran and its proxies in the region may not only push ISIS to exploit this preoccupation to reorganize its presence in the Middle East, but it may also push Tehran to support the organization directly or indirectly, turning it once again into a source of exhaustion and danger to America, Israel, and the West. For his part, Dr. Samir Al-Abdullah, the senior researcher at the “Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies,” considered, in a reading to Enab Baladi, that the in-depth analysis of the “Centcom” report shows that the real American fear is not the traditional return of ISIS, but rather the emergence of “an environment of sustainable chaos.” As for the issue of fighting ISIS, most countries see that the organization has ended in terms of spatial control, according to Al-Abdullah, but it is in a stage of latency, and is following a new strategy at this stage, which is based on rearranging its ranks and recruiting while waiting for the appropriate opportunity to reappear again. Syria constitutes an important spatial area for ISIS, according to the researcher, especially since it is in a transitional phase and has not yet completed building its security and military apparatus, with a state of economic weakness, which is the appropriate environment for the organization’s revival. Reading into the description of the “center of gravity,” Koulouriotis considers that General Charles Bradford Cooper II’s statement regarding Damascus as a “center of gravity” is an affirmation by the American administration that its military operations against ISIS are part of Operation Inherent Resolve. This is also reflected, according to Koulouriotis, in the repeated visits made by generals affiliated with the US Central Command (Centcom) to Damascus, and their follow-up of the progress of the military operations carried out by the Syrian government against ISIS in the Syrian desert. The researcher confirmed that Washington has established an operations command center against ISIS near Damascus in coordination with the Syrian government, according to what sources inside and outside Damascus reported, noting that this is a first step that will be followed by other steps to increase coordination between the American army and the Syrian army. The senior researcher at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syria Studies, Dr. Samir Al-Abdullah, believes that the testimony of the Commander of the US Central Command before the Armed Services Committee in the US Senate reflects the American approach to Syria after the fall of the Assad regime, as it moved to the stage of post-conflict management, in addition to redrawing the maps of influence in the Middle East after the regional developments that the region witnessed in the last three years. Therefore, he described it as a “center of gravity,” considering that it is indeed so in relation to those developments. What is striking, according to Al-Abdullah, is that Centcom did not talk about Syria as a “counter-terrorism arena” only, but rather as a “center of gravity,” indicating that this expression in American military doctrine is not a tactical description, but rather is used when the military establishment believes that the fate of an entire regional system can be decided through a specific geo-political complex. Al-Abdullah pointed out that the future of the “ISIS” organization may be decided in Syria more than in neighboring countries, and that Syria’s stability and its joining the international coalition to fight the “ISIS” organization is an opportunity for the world to get rid of it or any similar organizations, indicating that Syria is a knot in the axes and alliances of the region, which is why America attaches such importance to it. Political Messages In explaining the most prominent messages sent by Centcom to American public opinion and regional powers through this briefing at this particular time, Koulouriotis said that the Trump administration and the US Central Command are reaffirming to American public opinion that they are still committed to fighting ISIS, and that the organization still poses a threat even though President Donald Trump had announced its defeat years ago. On the other hand, according to Koulriotis, this briefing constitutes a message to skeptics in the Republican and Democratic parties that the Trump administration has strategic cooperation with the Syrian government, especially in the file of combating ISIS, and that this is the beginning of broader cooperation in other files, some of which are related to the Syrian interior and others are related to regional issues. According to the researcher in Middle East affairs, this briefing also conveys a message to American public opinion that Washington maintains close contact with the Syrian government and trusts it and its internal policies. For his part, researcher Samir Al-Abdullah believes that the American administration wants, on the one hand, to justify its continued intervention and presence in the region, and to send a message to the Syrian administration that cooperation is mainly conditional on security and intelligence files, and that it will not allow Syria to return to the Russia-Iran alliance. But this does not mean a complete political shift, according to Al-Abdullah, as the United States is still dealing pragmatically and cautiously with the new administration in Syria. American military and security presence: According to Koulouriotis, Trump does not want to increase the number of American forces in Syria or in Iraq, at least at the current stage, as the threat of ISIS now does not require that, and the war against Iran and its proxies is not over yet. But at a later stage, American military cooperation with the Syrian government may become more public, according to Koulouriotis, and thus sign security and military agreements with Damascus that allow Washington to use Syrian territory in “anti-terrorism” operations, and open military bases in this context. For his part, Dr. Al-Abdullah believes that all current indicators indicate that America will work to reposition itself in the region and enhance security and intelligence cooperation, without returning to a large deployment of American forces. Support that goes beyond military considerations Koulouriotis said that the current policy of the US administration, represented by official recognition of the government in Damascus, then the lifting of sanctions, and the meeting between President Trump and Shara, constitute a message to the region and the international community that encourages broader engagement with Damascus in all fields. This is reflected in practice, according to the researcher in Middle East affairs, through the visits of Al-Sharaa and his Foreign Minister to Germany and Britain, Damascus signing economic agreements with countries in the European Union, and opening the door to close cooperation between the Gulf states and the Syrian government in the fields of security, energy, reconstruction and investment. Therefore, it can be said that Washington giving the green light to the Syrian government means Syria’s return to the international community, and thus the beginning of the recovery and rebuilding process. In turn, Al-Abdullah believes that the impact of the American vision has been and will be more clear on the interactions of regional countries with the current Syrian administration, and this is represented by the willingness of the active countries in the Syrian affairs, except Iran, to support Syria and invest in its stability. He stressed that if the American position had been different, the positions of many countries would have been different than they are now, and that Syria today is within America’s interest, and countries will work to move within the margin that America will allow them to move. There are also many challenges, according to Al-Abdullah, including the extent of the success of security cooperation in reducing the risks and threats of ISIS and others, as well as completing the construction of security institutions as quickly as possible and their control over Syrian territory, especially the desert in which ISIS is active. The researcher at the Arab Center for Contemporary Syrian Studies continued that America can support sustainable stability in Syria, in addition to encouraging countries and companies to invest economically in it, but success is linked to the ability of the Syrian transitional government to achieve this. America was able to eliminate the organization militarily, but preventing its return requires security, economic, and political stability, and this is what Washington is counting on in Syria, according to the researcher. The Centcom commander’s statement represents an indirect declaration of the new American doctrine in Syria: managing fragile stability, preventing complete collapse, and maintaining influence at the lowest possible cost, to reshape the region as happened after the invasion of Iraq. This is what makes Syria, in the current American vision, not just an arena of conflict, but rather an axis for redrawing the balances of the entire Middle East. Dr. Samir Al-Abdullah, senior researcher at the “Arab Center for Contemporary Syria Studies” The “ISIS” organization mobilizes foreign fighters On May 14, the “Al-Naba” newspaper, the mouthpiece of the “Islamic State” organization, warned that the fate of the foreign fighters who participated in the fighting alongside the Syrian opposition factions was now threatened with liquidation, in light of the new Syrian authorities treating them as “a burden that must be eliminated,” as it put it. The newspaper considered, in an editorial in its issue, that the recent security campaign targeting fighters from Uzbekistan represents evidence of what it described as the “revealing of the truth” of the forces that the organization has faced during the past years, noting that the factions that fought under the slogan of the revolution have today turned into authorities seeking to suppress the extremist Islamic movement. The newspaper believes that what these fighters are currently facing is a direct result of what it described as “misleading directives” that pushed them to fight outside the ranks of the “Islamic State” organization, holding religious figures responsible for directing young people towards political projects that they described as “failed.” The newspaper renewed its call to foreign fighters to review their positions and join the organization, considering that this option is the only one that guarantees them a “respectable status” before and after any political change. She also warned that the presence of foreign fighters in Syria would not be acceptable to Israel, adding that the new Syrian leadership, in reference to President Ahmed al-Sharaa, is keen to maintain good relations with neighboring countries. The intersection of Al-Naba’s speech with developments on the ground shows that the foreign fighters file still represents a security and political challenge to the new Syrian government, at a time when it is trying to balance between imposing its control over the entire Syrian territory, managing the legacy of previous alliances, and dealing with regional and international pressures, amid attempts by the “Islamic State” organization to invest this file in attracting new followers. Related

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The implications of the “center of gravity” and the future of the American role in Syria

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