اخبار سوريا اليوم – وطن نيوز
سوريا اليوم – اخبار سوريا عاجل
W6nnews.com ==== وطن === تاريخ النشر – 2026-06-16 18:18:00
During the recent period, the exchange market in Syria has witnessed frequent changes in the price of the Syrian pound against the US dollar during one day, coinciding with the issuance of more than one bulletin or quote on the black market, which reflects a state of turmoil in the pricing mechanisms and affects the buying and selling movement. In the last week, the market opens daily with a morning bulletin, followed by one or more bulletins at the end of the day. On Friday, June 12, five exchange bulletins were issued, ranging between 14,200 and 14,600. During the last two days, the market opens with a bulletin and closes with a different bulletin, ranging between 14,270 and 14,400. The impact of this fluctuation is not limited to the currency market, but extends to various economic sectors, starting with the movement of trade and imports, all the way to the prices of goods and products and the ability of merchants and consumers to make stable financial decisions. Economists try to explain this phenomenon through monetary and economic factors related to liquidity, confidence in the market, and the working mechanisms of the exchange market, in addition to the general conditions that govern economic activity. The exchange rate of the Syrian pound against the US dollar, in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and a number of governorates in recent days reached 14,700 Syrian pounds, after it had reached about 14,000 pounds at the beginning of this June, which reflects a new decline in the value of the Syrian pound. This decline in the value of the lira comes while the Central Bank of Syria has established its official bulletin of the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar, since April 26, at the level of 11,250 lira for purchase and 11,350 lira for sale, equivalent to 112.5 and 113.5 new Syrian lira. Thus, the gap between the parallel market and the official price amounts to about 3,000 to 3,300 lira per dollar, i.e. more than Approximately 25%. What does multiple exchange bulletins mean? The change in the exchange rate during one day does not represent just a natural movement in the currency market, as the recurrence of changes and the appearance of more than one quote reflects a state of unclear reference to which one relies on determining the value of the currency on the black market. Economists point out that the absence of a stable exchange rate forces traders and individuals to deal with the dollar as a reference for pricing, which increases the sensitivity of markets to any change or new news. Here, Dr. Abdul Rahman Muhammad, professor of finance and banking at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Hama, believes that talking about a single exchange rate for the Syrian pound against the dollar no longer has a clear economic meaning in light of the current reality. Muhammad told Enab Baladi that what is happening represents a shift in the nature of the exchange market, from a market in which a state of relative stability prevails to a market witnessing “real-time pricing chaos,” explaining that the multiplicity of unofficial price bulletins indicates: 1- The complete disintegration of the market structure and the monopoly of information: the presence of several price bulletins in one day, and sometimes at the same moment (application price, wholesale black market price, retail price, remittance price, closing price), means that the market is no longer a single market, but rather has become a group of isolated markets. And fragmentation. Each bulletin reflects a price in a different trading channel, and is subject to its own data and information monopolies. This indicates the absence of a unified “reference price,” which exacerbates the chaos and allows large speculators to manufacture prices according to their interests. 2- Perpetuating the instantaneous phenomenon of “dollarization” in pricing: When the price changes several times a day, merchants and service owners stop pricing their goods in lira at all. Mental pricing in dollars becomes the norm, and conversion to lira takes place in real time when the deal is completed based on an agreed prospectus. This indicates that the lira has lost its function as a store of value and its measure, and has turned into just an immediate instrument of payment, which unofficially dedicates the complete dollarization of the economy. 3- Evidence of the collapse of confidence and distorted expectations: The sharp momentary fluctuation does not necessarily reflect an immediate change in macroeconomic indicators, but rather mainly reflects the psychological fragility of dealers. Any news, rumour, political event, or even a “rumor” about the arrest of a major money changer, immediately translates into a jump in the price. This indicates that the “primary driver” of the market is no longer the actual supply and demand for foreign exchange, but rather the “precautionary demand” driven by fear of tomorrow, which is known as the self-fulfilling expectations loop, where the expectation of a collapse leads to the actual collapse. A reflection of the movement of economic activity. For his part, economist Muhammad Al-Hallaq reads this fluctuation as a reflection of the movement of economic activity, explaining that the markets are witnessing a change in the levels of demand and purchasing power. Al-Hallaq pointed out that the presence of goods in the markets does not necessarily mean a stable sales movement, as the availability of liquidity among citizens changes from one period to another, which is reflected in the volume of demand. The exchange rate of the Syrian pound against the US dollar, in the Syrian capital, Damascus, and a number of governorates, today, Tuesday, June 16, reached 14,500 for purchase and 14,560 for sale, after reaching about 14,000 pounds at the beginning of this June, which reflects a new decline in the value of the Syrian pound. This decline in the value of the lira comes while the Central Bank of Syria has established, in its official bulletin, the exchange rate of the lira against the dollar, since April 26, at the level of 11,250 lira for purchase and 11,350 lira for sale, equivalent to 112.5 and 113.5 new Syrian lira. Thus, the gap between the parallel market and the official price is about 3,000 to 3,300 liras per dollar, or approximately more than 25%. What are the reasons? The price of the local currency is linked to a set of monetary, economic, and political factors, and does not move in isolation from the volume of circulating liquidity, the movement of trade, and the level of confidence in the market. The absence of stability in these factors increases the sensitivity of the exchange rate to news and sudden changes, which makes the dollar’s movement more rapid compared to actual economic variables. Dr. Abdul Rahman Muhammad enumerates a group of reasons that he believes are behind the fluctuation, which are: 1- Monetary and financial structural reasons: · Excessive inflation and deficit financing: The continued financing of the general budget deficit through direct borrowing from the central bank (printing money) without a corresponding productive cover, leads to the pumping of huge monetary masses in lira chasing a limited amount of goods and foreign currencies. · Lack of effective foreign reserve: The reserves available to the Central Bank (if any) are largely insufficient to intervene and influence a market with the size of demand for the dollar in Syria, making it unable to defend the currency. · Failure of the electronic remittance platform: Instead of being a tool for controlling the market, it turned into another parallel market at a different price, which created a new price reference and deepened the gap instead of filling it, and it became a source of multiple bulletins. 2. Reasons related to the structure of the market and its working mechanisms: · Oligopoly and speculation: The exchange market in Syria is not a competitive market, but is controlled by a limited number of large merchants and money changers who have the ability to influence the price. In the absence of real supervision, the market turns into an arena for speculation, where huge profits are made from one-day fluctuations, which encourages deepening volatility. · The spread of the cash economy: Most transactions take place in cash outside the formal banking sector, which makes tracking money flows difficult and provides ample room for unregulated speculation. 3. Geopolitical and security reasons (accelerators of the crisis): · Connection to the external factor: The price of the lira has become very sensitive to regional and international political developments, such as the course of sanctions, political negotiations, and relations with neighboring countries. · Money and capital smuggling: Legal and economic insecurity has led to a continuous migration of Syrian capital abroad, which represents a huge additional demand for foreign exchange for the purpose of hedging and smuggling, not for import. Import duties are an additional factor. Economist Muhammad al-Hallaq explains that the movement of the exchange rate is also linked to the level of liquidity in the market, noting that an increase in the amount of the Syrian pound in circulation increases the demand for the dollar. He added that the import file constitutes an additional factor, as paying fees related to clearing imported materials in dollars prompts merchants to secure foreign currency from the market. How is volatility reflected in the economy and commodities? The effects of exchange rate changes do not stop at the borders of the currency market, but rather extend to economic activity in general, as they affect investment, production and trade decisions, and are directly reflected on the consumer. In markets, the lack of clarity of the exchange rate makes it difficult to determine the costs of goods, especially those related to imports or imported raw materials. University professor and economic expert Abdul Rahman Muhammad said that continued volatility harms the business environment, because it makes it difficult for investors and traders to make clear plans even for short periods. He added that the state of uncertainty pushes part of the funds towards speculation instead of investment and production, which weakens the industrial and agricultural sectors. He pointed out that producers face difficulty in determining their costs and pricing their products, while some traders may resort to raising prices based on expectations of a rise in the exchange rate. He added that this may lead to the emergence of what he described as a “variable price,” where the prices of the same commodity vary during one day, or some traders refrain from selling while waiting for the market direction to become clear. Non-individual effect: Economist Muhammad Al-Hallaq believes that the effect of the exchange rate on prices is not isolated, but rather interacts with other factors related to the commodity itself. He explained that prices are affected by the quality of the product, the availability of the material, the degree of competition, and the place of sale, in addition to transportation and fuel costs. He explained that high production costs in the country of origin or high energy prices lead to an increase in the price of the commodity, in addition to the effect of the exchange rate, which creates additional pressure on prices. He pointed out that an improvement in global trade movement or a decrease in some costs may help mitigate the rise in prices when goods are available. Proposals for a solution: Economists believe that addressing the problem of the fluctuation in the price of the lira is not only related to controlling the daily market movement, but rather requires broader measures that rebuild confidence and provide a more stable economic environment. Dr. Abdul Rahman Muhammad stressed that the solution requires monetary, financial and structural reforms, starting with reorganizing the exchange market and establishing a clear and transparent mechanism that sets a reference price for foreign currencies. He proposed strengthening the role of the banking sector and reducing reliance on unregulated cash transactions, in addition to addressing the causes of inflation and adjusting monetary policy. He also stressed the importance of the independence of monetary policy and reforming the legal and economic environment to help restore confidence and attract investment. The solution requires monetary, financial and structural reforms, starting with reorganizing the exchange market and establishing a clear and transparent mechanism that sets a reference price for foreign currencies, strengthening the role of the banking sector and reducing reliance on unregulated cash transactions, addressing the causes of inflation and controlling monetary policy, and the importance of the independence of monetary policy and reforming the legal and economic environment. Abdul Rahman Muhammad, Professor of Finance and Banking at the Faculty of Economics at the University of Hama. For his part, economic expert Muhammad Al-Hallaq believes that the stability of the exchange rate requires the stability of legislation and economic decisions, explaining that the current stage requires speed and flexibility. In making decisions, especially since the current stage is still transitional under a new government that has not yet completed controlling all files. He pointed out that this is not related to the weakness of the government, but rather to general conditions, pointing out that many legislations have not been fully regulated, and that a number of laws still need to be amended, in addition to that some institutions have not fully begun their work. He explained that any news or change in the economic and political scene is reflected in the markets and the exchange rate, stressing that stability requires clear, quick and flexible decisions that are commensurate with the nature of the market economy. He pointed out the necessity of facilitating the movement of goods, their entry and exit from markets, and reorganizing procedures in a manner commensurate with the nature of the market economy. He stressed the need to reconsider some economic procedures, to facilitate the movement of goods and their entry and exit from markets, considering that the required free economy is not an economy without controls, but rather an organized, disciplined and rational economy that achieves a balance between market freedom and the role of institutions. The free market economy is defined as the system based on the freedom of individuals to engage in any economic activity, and is built on private ownership of the means of production. The opinions of economic circles differ about the identity of the Syrian economy today, whether it adopts a free market economy, a command economy, or an economy with a hybrid identity, with the continuing economic crises that hinder the construction and recovery of the economy and the definition of a clear identity for it. The Syrian President, Ahmed Al-Sharaa, said that the economic policy in Syria now is based on protecting the local product “to some extent.” Currently, Syria is still unable to open the market because its production is weak, and therefore it will be drowned in imported materials and this will be at the expense of local production in Syria, during his speech at the “Future Investment Initiative Conference” in Riyadh, on October 29, 2025. A Syrian government official also denied, to Enab Baladi earlier, that the government follows a free market economy, considering that the Syrian environment today It is not appropriate to adopt it, and its policy today is not based on it, but rather on an economic policy that suits the current situation. Two experts explain the reasons for the growth of the “shadow economy” in Syria Related
