Rushing waves of scenarios of tension and complete fluidity are gathering around the geopolitics of the Middle East. This is on the edge of areas of tension and high levels of conflict in Gaza, despite indications of mediation efforts to impose an extended truce between the Hamas movement and Israel.

However, Tel Aviv is moving towards the necessity of targeting Tehran and its movements through armed militias, especially in Lebanon and Syria, in addition to the fact that Tehran is moving centrally towards targeting the American military presence and Israeli interests, which always puts the state of conflict in the region into consideration, and the economic and development implications it entails. On the lives of citizens, especially in light of the state of liquidity and instability that the international system generally knows.

A gap with Khamenei

Against this background, the foreign currency and gold markets witnessed a noticeable rise in Iran, reaching 20 percent within one week, raising the levels of societal tension inside Iran as a result of Tehran’s involvement in the conflict that has been raging since the outbreak of the “Al-Aqsa Flood” in all its forms and their direct involvement in its outbreak. And its development.

Thus, the picture clearly reflects the depth of the space in which the perceptions of the political authority in Iran are isolated from the priorities of its citizens and their aspirations for a stable life. There is no doubt that most of Iranian society aims for life in its safe sense and living under economic conditions that are not low and decent, while being consistent with the capabilities of their country and what it abounds with. It has potentials far from the financial and economic monopolies whose management is dominated by Iranian Revolutionary Guard companies, and the sectors that fall under its influence through its various networks.

Certainly, the Iranian citizen believes that all of this can only be achieved by crossing the limits of tension, isolating the interactions of regional and international escalation, and enjoying good neighborhood relations with neighboring countries. While what is settled in the mentality and doctrine of the authority in Tehran is the work to export their “revolutionary” ideology, and impose its logic through interaction with conflict areas, integrating functional groups, and buying their loyalty by allocating expenses and numerous privileges from the country’s capabilities and capabilities. In addition to the burden of their oppression on the citizens at home and curbing all movements that call for the importance of extending stability instead of exporting sectarian statements and creating tension through hegemony.

What indicates this gap and empty space between the authority and the citizens is what was stated by the Supreme Leader when he said: Iran is in a position “close to the summit,” as well as the statements of the Iranian President when he described the world as “in amazement at the progress taking place in the country.”

But these official conversations and statements do not take into account the conditions of the Iranian citizen, who suffers the brunt of deprivation and marginalization, due to economic pressures, unemployment, inflation, as well as increasing migration in sectors; Such as medicine and other elites of society.

Similarly, Iranian Leader Ali Khamenei diagnosed this situation, claiming that the necessary and necessary efforts were not made to clarify the extent of the efforts made to achieve the progress achieved in the country and the successes and innovations of the citizens.

As a result of this difficult situation in Iran, the rates of food security for Iranians deteriorated and the spread of malnutrition diseases against the backdrop of citizens being forced to reduce their consumption of foodstuffs as a result of rising prices, according to numerous local and foreign press and human rights reports.

Millions of Iranian families are patient

The former director of social welfare studies at the Ministry of Cooperation and Labor, Hadi Mousavi Nik, said in June last year that 57 percent of the population in Iran suffers from malnutrition and does not get the daily calories the body needs, and among the population 14.5 million children suffer from malnutrition, including 10 million children under the age of twelve.

In addition to what was stated in a report by the Research Center at Sharif University of Technology, the percentage of families that did not eat red meat in the year 2021 increased to 58 percent after it was 27 percent in the year 2006, meaning that about 49 million Iranians did not eat meat. Red all year.

This is in line with what was shown by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) report on food security in the world, and that based on 2021 data, more than 26 million Iranians cannot afford a proper diet, while about 41 percent of the population suffers from food poverty. Severe or moderate.

Against the backdrop of US sanctions and the varying dealings of successive administrations with Tehran, especially regarding nuclear negotiations, Iran’s gross domestic product witnessed growth from 2010 to 2012. However, it suffered an increasing decline as a result of international sanctions on Iranian oil exports.

In 2016, things changed after the signing of the nuclear agreement, and the output rose slightly, but then declined again following the unilateral withdrawal of the United States from the nuclear agreement during the era of Donald Trump, within two years.

In 2020, Iran’s GDP was about a third of what it was compared to 2012, and this coincided with higher prices in Iran in general; The average income in the country has begun to decline, making the cost of basic goods such as food and medicine very expensive, according to a report published by the British “Middle East Eye” website.

The report added, “The impact of sanctions on the Iranian currency and the high inflation rates recorded by Iran during the sanctions period increased the cost of all types of goods, while consumer prices rose by about 40 percent. This means a decline in purchasing power for millions of Iranian families.”

A regime that does not care about the lives of its citizens

Identical reports indicate that Iran is suffering from a significant increase in inflation rates in a way that Tehran has not witnessed in many years, and the year 2022 is the fourth year in a row that inflation has reached the limits of 30 and 40 percent, which from an economic standpoint means fragmentation of purchasing power and worsening poverty, in addition to the failure of decisions. The support provided by the Ibrahim Raisi administration towards achieving its target and curbing the outbreak of protest waves among citizens.

High inflation rates and economic stagnation in the past few years have greatly accumulated a worrying image in the mind of the components of the authority in Tehran regarding poverty rates and the difficulties of life. Poverty has expanded to affect many social and class groups, especially after the Iranian president’s decision to freeze the subsidized exchange rate for basic commodities, which witnessed consequences. Therefore, it increased and doubled in the markets due to the lifting of support and the liberalization of its price.

The state moved towards mitigating the impact of rising prices by increasing cash assistance to low-income groups, but inflation levels were causing the impact of these attempts to fade away. The continuous rises in markets were able to tighten the stranglehold on the family’s purchasing power rates, causing the margin of poverty and destitution to widen. Who attacked the Iranians.

In addition, sources in the Iranian opposition indicate that with the continuation of this tension and the high rates of escalation, this means that the difficulties of life for citizens at home will worsen. Discussion of the issues of poverty, marginalization, and lack of development will continue to outweigh the scenarios of political fluidity and growing protests in the Iranian street, and it will be considered a major topic in the discussions of the Iranian Supreme National Security Council, and the need to pay attention to its dangerous effects and repercussions on the reality and future of power.

In the same context, Wejdan Abdul Rahman, a researcher on Iranian affairs, stresses that the Iranian citizen “all he is looking for are the determinants of a decent life and a decent living that are consistent with his country’s capabilities.” Therefore, Abdul Rahman confirms in his statements to Al-Hal Net that many of the protests that broke out inside Iran during recent years were chants raised indicating: “Neither Gaza nor Lebanon, my soul will be sacrificed for Iran.”

This clearly shows that the citizen in Iran “does not want his money and his country’s resources to go to the political adventures of a regime that does not care about the lives of its citizens or their future and only aims to achieve its ambitions through numerous armed militias that enjoy huge expenditures from state resources and financial allocations for their field and military role without oversight.” Or accountability.”

So, the matter has become more complicated now after the escalation in the Gaza Strip and its repercussions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and Lebanon, and the recent American strikes that entail complex scenarios that raise fears for the security and stability of the Iranian citizen.

In light of the upcoming parliamentary elections, the regime is facing with extreme violence many challenges, some of which are local, related to economic crises and protests against living conditions, in addition to the demand for rights and freedoms, including the issue of the hijab, and others are regional, related to involvement in the Gaza crisis, Russia’s assistance in Ukraine, and the strategic alliance with it, as well as China. Which expands the opportunities for clashes with the West and Washington and continues the process of international and diplomatic isolation.

In addition to the particularly impactful sanctions affecting the oil sector, the authority is in a stifling crisis as a result of the pressures that the citizen is exposed to, and this will greatly affect his participation in the electoral elections during the next month. It is expected and perhaps likely that many will refrain from participating.

Negative indicators

World Bank reports indicate that up to 10 million Iranians live below the poverty line. In addition to millions of others at risk of falling below the poverty line during the next few years due to “bad economic management and sanctions imposed on the country during a lost decade of growth,” in political and field adventures across hotbeds of tension in the Middle East, and supporting armed militias at the expense of stability and security in the region.

According to the American “Bloomberg” agency, the World Bank report, which was issued at the end of last year, is the first official assessment by the World Bank of poverty in Iran, which has a population of 85 million people, since the 1979 revolution. The report, which was not announced, was issued on the 5th. On November 10 last year, World Bank researchers were unable to travel to Iran, according to Bloomberg.

The report depicts an economy in which “inequality and poverty rates rose in Iran during the decade to 2020, with US-led sanctions contributing and women bearing the brunt of the impact of sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic.”

For his part, Diya Qaddour, a writer and researcher on Iranian affairs, says that in light of the unprecedented rise in Iranian oil exports (more than 2 million barrels per day according to one statistics), the economic conditions inside Iran are still heading towards negative indicators in addition to high inflation rates.

In his statements to Al-Hal Net, Qaddour continues that the majority of the Iranian people live below the poverty line, while their ability to purchase the basic necessities of life and secure the least requirements for a decent life is diminishing.

At the same time, according to the same source, the mullahs’ regime continues its regional adventures and its policy of supporting local agents and directing them with money, weapons and intelligence information with the aim of achieving geopolitical gains, on the one hand, and covering up the internal failure of the government of Ibrahim Raisi and delaying and disrupting the mechanisms of the popular uprising and the moment of power faltering, on the other hand.

Therefore, addressing this intractable problem requires looking beyond targeting regional arms, and moving towards a radical solution to it by supporting the Iranian citizen and “making him also avoid the weight of the Iranian regime, which is tampering with the capabilities of its people in uncalculated adventures that threaten his country.”

On the internal level, and in the context of the difficult economic situation and electoral dues during the next month, the mullahs’ regime is facing the accumulation of its weaknesses and represents only interest groups and beneficiaries in the face of a society groaning from the difficulties of life and providing for its livelihood realistically.