The announcement of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, which is classified on the terrorist lists, to suspend its aggressive activities and stop its operations related to targeting American interests in Iraq, was nothing but a new maneuver to avoid escalation with the United States, and to be satisfied with the process of temporary balancing between rough confrontations and operational continuation of the conflict and attack on the one hand. And the military parade, on the other hand.

Therefore, it came in a statement issued at the end of last January, that it began “suspension of military and security operations against American forces” in order “to embarrass the Iraqi government,” indicating that it will continue to defend “our people in Gaza in other ways.” The statement also called on what it called “the Free Mujahideen of the Hezbollah Brigades” to “passive defense temporarily in the event of any American action against them.”

Perhaps this maneuver is a moment of latency to avoid an American strike and a reaction that would put it on the brink of collapse and disintegration, especially since the Iranian regime also took the initiative in the Arab and international media to say that it had decided to withdraw the leaders of the “Revolutionary Guard” from Syria.

An imposed truce or a clear escape?

The statement published by the “Kata’ib Hezbollah” channel via the “Telegram” application was signed in the name of the Secretary-General of the “Kata’ib” Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, which draws attention to the circumstances of the recent attack that was carried out against American forces in the area located on the border triangle between Jordan, Iraq and Syria. And the repercussions of this on Iran and all its agents. In addition to the fact that Washington directly accused the Phalangists and held them responsible for the killing of three American citizens and the injury of others.

The content of the statement also pointed towards a tactical goal for the “Hezbollah Brigades,” which is to shift responsibility for the recent attack from the rest of the components of the so-called “Axis of Resistance.” The statement stated, “The Islamic Resistance, the Hezbollah Brigades, has made its decision to support our oppressed people in Gaza.” She persists of her own free will and without any interference from others.”

The statement explicitly stated that “our brothers in the axis, especially in the Islamic Republic, do not know how we work jihad and have often objected to the pressure and escalation against the American occupation forces in Iraq and Syria,” which remotely indicates that Tehran’s fingers are behind this single statement.

US President Joe Biden, in statements to reporters, held Iran responsible for supplying the groups loyal to it with weapons, and added that the United States does not want a broader war in the Middle East, while the Pentagon said that the attack bears the fingerprints of the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades, considering that it “Escalation,” after it led to the death of three soldiers and the injury of dozens of others.

Therefore, one day after this statement, and with Washington approving plans to launch a series of strikes lasting several days against targets, including Iranian individuals and installations, inside Iraq and Syria, the Iranian regime rushed to leak news of the withdrawal of the leaders of the “Revolutionary Guard” from Syria.

According to what was reported by Iranian media, the “Revolutionary Guard” withdrew a number of its senior officers from Syria, in the context of maintaining Iranian influence in Syria by reducing human losses among the ranks of Iranian officers.

In addition, sources revealed that the “Revolutionary Guard” will remain present in the Syrian scene, provided that it manages and directs these operations remotely through the assistance of the Lebanese “Hezbollah”.

As for the Iranian forces or advisors who are still inside Syria, a regional official close to Iran revealed that they have left their offices and centers and disappeared from sight, reducing their movements to the maximum, especially since they now have fears of the leakage of sensitive information from inside Syria, with A number of official officials in Damascus.

Strategy to escape from Washington

It appears from the statement of the militia organization that there is a temporary truce, and it is a truce that is inevitably required by the supporting forces in Iran, which the “Hezbollah Brigades” tried to clear in Tehran, while the activity and movements of the state armed forces do not deviate from the scope of the vision, circle of information, and goals of the “guardian.” Al-Faqih” led by the “Quds Force” of the Iranian “Revolutionary Guard”.

Despite attempts to hide the brigades in Iraq, the presence of links or information with Iran about their activities, specifically the recent operation; However, what is certain and inevitable from the context of events, the nature of the organization, and its network of connections with the Revolutionary Guards is that the Iranian decision imposed this statement and called for this maneuver to prevent escalation, which is fraught with great risks in confronting Washington, especially with the red line crossed.

Ministry spokesman Pat Ryder said, “We take actions, not words,” adding, “There is no point in escalating tensions in the region, but we will take all necessary measures to defend our interests and forces.” In Iraq, official media reported that Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein, in a phone call with his Jordanian counterpart, condemned the attack that led to the killing of American soldiers in Jordan near the Syrian border.

The media added that Hussein and the Jordanian Foreign Minister, Ayman Al-Safadi, stressed the need to keep the two countries and the region away from military threats from any party.

So, the recent operation carried out by the so-called “Islamic Resistance” front, which targeted “Tower 22,” appeared to be a remarkable shift in the security path, as it “crossed the lines examined by the Iranians,” according to an informed Iraqi political source who preferred to remain anonymous.

The source continues, in the context of his talk to Al-Hal Net, that Tehran is based on a strategic vision towards working away from the frameworks of direct confrontation with Washington, and the latter is moving towards the same approach. However, the latest attack imposed itself on everyone and obligated the American administration to “the necessity of responding to the blow and taking consideration, which is something you can find in all the official statements that came from the American President and the Minister of Defense as well.”

Although the Hezbollah Brigades are part of the Revolutionary Guard system, they carried out their recent operation without direct permission from the Quds Force, or an order issued by its leadership, revealing that the Quds Force organizes the general lines and points in which the various factions and militias should operate and their military operation.

Iraqi political source

However, according to the same Iraqi source, the Phalange’s attack exceeded the specified target, which required direct action to temporarily freeze its work, which explains the content of the statement issued in the name of the Phalange, especially since the Revolutionary Guard forces informed the Front that they were “not responsible” for the American response. “Not defending their bases,” and the strike, in the IRGC’s assessment, came “outside the rules of engagement” and led to the death of American soldiers.

Therefore, according to the same source, “During the coming period, we must track and monitor the reactions of the Iraqi militias, and whether this will lead to the cessation of field operations on the part of what was called the “Islamic resistance.” If the parallel armed formations will also stop their military activities, since continuing to do so will consequently lead to escalation of tension in relations between the two governments; It will also confuse the indirect dialogue between Washington and Tehran.

Fear of the American eagle

A careful reading of the latest statement by the “Hezbollah Brigades” in Iraq indicates much clarity about what is more and deeper than the issue of suspending military operations to exonerating the Iraqi and Iranian governments from the recent attack.

This matter is estimated by the Iraqi diplomat, Qais Al-Nouri, that behind this is “a careful calculation that fears the degree and form of the American response, especially with the violent message that the Phalange received from Tehran, as well as the clear messages that the Iraqi government received from Washington, that the American response would be appropriate by killing three soldiers and targeting An important base for the United States of America from a geostrategic perspective, which prompted the necessary pressure to be exerted to issue a statement suspending field operations.”

The Iraqi diplomat continues his talk to Al-Hal Net by saying: The expected scenario during the coming period is that Iran will reduce the role of its militias in Iraq and Syria in particular, to avoid escalation and for the purpose of preserving the basis of understanding.

As part of this trend, some factions have announced that they will stop attacking American targets. What the geography of the Middle East is exposed to does not fall outside the framework of reformulating the political and geographical landscape within the framework of the new Middle East project.

According to Al-Nouri, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, although he did not announce positions opposing the Iranian regime, he nevertheless proceeded with moves that greatly disturbed the militias affiliated with the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, with the aim of (Al-Sudani) working to manage the strategic dialogue with the United States. In a balanced manner, through which he builds extended and connected relations and then builds “good and sustainable relations with the countries of the region, and his country stays away from proxy conflicts, and becomes a base for attacking geographically adjacent countries, or is trapped in the ongoing conflict between Tehran on the one hand and Washington and Tel Aviv on the other hand.”

Crossing “red lines”

In a related context, what happened is related to the borders and features of the region and Tehran’s move towards employing all its agents to put pressure on the American administration and confront it through its militias that encircle the region, before the threshold of full conflict, especially with regard to the Lebanon front and Hezbollah’s movements.

The Lebanese writer, Hanna Saleh, goes on to say: “The scene that the Lebanese must take into consideration currently is that it is from the mountains and caves of Yemen controlled by the Houthi militias to southern Lebanon, which is controlled (and in Lebanon) by Hezbollah, passing through the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces militias, which are legally legislated and have the power to command.” In reality, at the same time, it seems that the Iranian regime is continuing, through its arms, to adopt a strategy of pressure on the Americans so that they can pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to stop the war on Gaza, so that Hamas’ military capacity is not undermined.”

However, what has actually happened is that the pressure has crossed the “red lines,” whether in targeting Americans in Jordan and the first three deaths among the American army and dozens of wounded, to targeting navigation in the Red Sea. The repercussions of this on the global economy, which threatens to get things out of control despite Washington’s assurances to avoid a comprehensive confrontation while at the same time avoiding the collapse of American influence in the region.

Hanna Saleh continues his statements to Al-Hal Net, predicting that “during this time, Israeli evasion of American control will be around the corner to expand the war front northward,” explaining that it is almost likely that the war will expand to the southern Lebanon front and the outbreak of the conflict will appear to be a decision soon on the horizon and may come into effect. into effect.

For Netanyahu, it appears to be an opportunity to prolong his stay in power and remove from him the sword of accountability and investigation into what happened since the outbreak of the “Al-Aqsa Flood,” especially with the aspects of negligence that are being investigated against the backdrop of the sudden attacks carried out by the “Hamas” movement, but he succeeded in obstructing the military investigation until the end of the investigation. The war on Gaza.

The decision to withdraw “Revolutionary Guard” officers from Syria and the Iraqi “Hezbollah” to suspend its military operations against American forces, after those loyal to the “Axis of Resistance” were looking at Iran’s declaration of war within the framework of solidarity with the Palestinian people, which Khamenei offered as a sacrifice to Israel in retaliation for the killing of Qassem. Soleimani, as he stated, infers from him that when the Iranian regime felt that the angry America wanted purely Iranian sacrifices and not Iraqi or Syrian sacrifices, it hastened to withdraw its officers, and it became clear who Iran is, which some still believe leads an alliance that is falsely called the “resistance or resistance” alliance. Resistance”.