Things seem very confusing within the Palestinian Hamas movement, in light of the discrepancy in the order of priorities and the conflict between the different arms. According to an informed Palestinian political source, a main wing within the Political Bureau, led by Ismail Haniyeh and accompanied by Mahmoud Al-Zahar and Khalil Al-Hayya, wants to preserve the political presence of “Hamas” inside the Gaza Strip by any means possible, even if the matter requires moving forward with elections, or managing the Strip. In partnership with the “Fatah” movement, as this wing realizes the difficulty of the military situation, to the extent that prompted Haniyeh to make a statement after his reluctance to involve Cairo and Doha in managing the sector in the transitional phase.

For his part, Khaled Meshaal and Musa Abu Marzouk are relatively cautious about the complete flexibility shown by Haniyeh regarding the future of the movement’s hawks in the Gaza Strip, especially in light of the sharp criticism that the latter directed at Yahya Sinwar and his brother Muhammad, as well as Muhammad Deif and military commander Marwan Issa, while Khalil agreed. Al-Hayya explicitly agreed to integrate Hamas into the Liberation Organization, which the latter conveyed to the leaders of Fatah, Nasser al-Qudwa and Samir Masharawi, in a previous meeting. He even went on to implicitly agree to remove Sinwar from the Gaza Strip, but he demanded the necessity of structural change in Fatah leadership.

Sinwar… a thorny fate

According to the same source for Al-Hal Net, Haniyeh did not mind removing Sinwar and Deif from the Gaza Strip, and even conveyed his implicit approval to Mossad chief David Barnea, through Qatari intermediaries, in the last week of last January. The idea was presented more clearly, according to the source, in a meeting that took place last week in Paris, and included the Prime Minister of Qatar, and the intelligence chiefs of the United States, Israel, and Egypt. To discuss a deal that might lead to the release of Israeli hostages and end the war between Israel and Hamas.

The Israeli government pledged to kill Hamas leaders, Sinwar and Muhammad Deif, with the start of retaliatory strikes, following the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation on October 7, 2023.

According to the source, Egyptian intelligence, which maintains a means of communication with Sinwar in the Gaza Strip, has already conveyed to the latter Israel’s approval for his departure from the Strip, with Subha Deif and four other Hamas military leaders. It also conveyed to him the features of the general framework of the proposed truce and the mechanism. Release of hostages.

US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, confirmed that Hamas had a “positive reaction” to the proposed terms of the new deal, and that it had made an offer with specific conditions, including a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, which Netanyahu rejected, and the issue of denial was not addressed. Sinwar supported it.

According to a Hamas source, the current three-stage truce proposal is under discussion, which includes an initial cessation of fighting for six weeks, which would lead to the release of some hostages, in exchange for the release of Palestinian prisoners, with a possible extension of the temporary ceasefire.

In turn, NBC News revealed in a report that Israel is ready to allow the military leader of the Hamas movement, Yahya Sinwar, to safely exit the Gaza Strip, in exchange for the release of all hostages and the end of Hamas’ authority in Gaza, as six Israeli officials told it.

The report added, “The idea had been on the table since last November.” According to a senior advisor to the Israeli government. A senior advisor to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was quoted as saying, “There is no objection if Sinwar leaves, just as Yasser Arafat left Lebanon.” He added: “We will allow this to happen as long as all the hostages are released.”

The report continued, quoting informed Israeli sources within the Israeli government, that “exile was part of a set of proposals that the Israelis presented to Washington, including ending Hamas’ rule, getting rid of its leaders, as well as reforming the education system in the Gaza Strip.” Which Tel Aviv sees as an incubator for terrorism.

According to (NBC News), a former senior Israeli security official said, “Exile is the magic solution that everyone wants,” which raises the idea of ​​division within the movement, and the desire of a large wing within it to get rid of Sinwar and his group.

inner struggle

It is worth noting that Khalil Al-Hayya, who holds the position of Deputy Head of the Political Bureau of “Hamas,” entered into a public confrontation with Sinwar, months before the “Al-Aqsa Flood” operation, where Al-Hayya insisted on appointing Youssef Hamdan as director of the “Hamas” office in Algeria, While Sinwar wanted to appoint Muhammad Nasr, who was close to him, and in the end, Al-Hayya succeeded in imposing Hamdan, with the help of Musa Abu Marzouk, which later prompted Sinwar to marginalize Al-Hayya, with regard to the movement’s military activities, in agreement with Ismail Haniyeh.

It does not seem that Sinwar will respond to the offer presented to him, as his exit from the Gaza Strip will undermine his credibility due to the deaths of thousands of people since October 7, and his exit from the Gaza Strip is considered the final chapter for his political future.

It appears that the shift in Haniyeh’s position, and his alignment with Khalil al-Hayya regarding removing Sinwar from the Gaza Strip, comes in response to the latter’s monopolization of field decisions since last October 7, and his gamble with the future of the movement. Through a number of ill-considered decisions, as well as his arbitrariness in approving previous Qatari and Egyptian proposals related to a ceasefire and the integration of “Hamas” into a Palestinian political process, it maintains its relative presence in the afflicted sector.

Israeli officials confirm that Al-Sinwar and Deif are hiding in tunnels at great depths, below Khan Yunis, and until this moment, all Israeli military efforts have failed to reach them, while hundreds of innocent people, who may not have realized that they were human shields for the leader of “Hamas,” fell in the Facing a brutal military machine.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant claimed that the Israeli army found materials belonging to Sinwar, which means that there are several hideouts that the latter moves between. This is confirmed by Gallant’s claims, who said that “Sinwar moves from one hideout to another.”

It does not seem that Sinwar will respond to the offer presented to him, as his exit from the Gaza Strip will seriously damage his credibility, after thousands of deaths have occurred since October 7, 2023. Sinwar also realizes that his exit from the Gaza Strip represents the final chapter for his political future, in The shadow of the differences that are no longer hidden within the political bureau of “Hamas”.

For his part, Jacob Nagel, Netanyahu’s former national security advisor, says he believes that “Sinwar still believes that he will emerge victorious.” Perhaps this was Hamas’ bet in the first weeks of the war, in light of the mounting pressure on Tel Aviv from public opinion around the world, but the insistence of the extreme right-wing government in Tel Aviv, and its indifference to the loss of thousands of innocent people, shocks all of Sinwar’s wishes, to the point that He had no choice but death or exile.

Perhaps Sinwar is aware of the nature of the current changes, which makes him cling to the last card, which is the hostage file. According to an informed Egyptian security source who told Al-Hal Net, Al-Sinwar expressed his astonishment at Ismail Haniyeh’s leniency regarding the release of all the hostages, without sufficient guarantees from Tel Aviv to stop the war and immediately withdraw from the Gaza Strip. However, Hamas leaders abroad have no ability to influence Sinwar. This was confirmed by the Hebrew Channel 12, which said, “The internal discussion among senior Hamas officials regarding the current proposal has largely stopped, with the movement’s leaders outside the Gaza Strip admitting that the final decision rests with only one person, who has the ability to decide.” Freeing the hostages, he salutes Sinwar.”

Israel changed its strategy!

Meanwhile, in Israel, the war cabinet met last Sunday evening, where Israeli media said the ministers discussed, among other matters: whether it was possible to return to full combat operations after a long pause; The need for any agreement to include all 132 hostages who are still being held in Gaza.

During the meeting, Justice Minister from the Likud Party, Yariv Levin, joined by Education Minister Yoav Kisch, Transportation Minister Miri Regev, Foreign Minister Israel Katz, and Diaspora Minister Amichai Checkli, insisted that any decisions related to a possible hostage exchange deal must be made. Approved by the entire Knesset. An Israeli official told The Times of Israel that the ministers demanded that the Council of Ministers must unanimously approve any further meetings abroad of Mossad Chief David Barnea with international mediators.

During the meeting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the ratio of three Palestinian security prisoners for every hostage released, as was the case in the November hostage deal, should be the reference point for any further agreements.

The November 2023 truce, which lasted for a week, witnessed the release of 105 Israeli and foreign hostages, 80 of whom were only part of the terms of the deal, in exchange for the release of 240 women and underage Palestinian security prisoners.

Netanyahu stressed that Israel will not end the war until all of its goals are achieved, which are “eliminating Hamas, returning all hostages, and ensuring that Gaza will never again represent a threat to Israel.” According to the Hebrew Channel 12, Economy Minister Nir Barkat, who is also from the Likud Party, demanded that the agreement include the release of all hostages in one stage, instead of stages conditional on certain conditions. He also called for stopping humanitarian aid to the Palestinians in Gaza. He added: “You give gifts to Hamas, and Sinwar celebrates.”

Also speaking against the interim plan, at the cabinet meeting last Sunday, Diaspora Minister Shikli said: “We have to look at the war as a marathon. If we stop fighting now for a month, we will not finish the marathon and we will not be able to fight with the same force.”

According to other members of the government, quoted by the Israeli website Ynet, Netanyahu wrote down and presented opinions opposing the terms of the hostage deal, which were expressed during the cabinet meeting, in order to indicate that his hands were tied.

According to the Associated Press, the two sides are still far apart on the terms, and mediators in Qatar, Egypt and the United States are working to bridge the gaps between them, but Israel still makes destroying Hamas’ military capabilities a main goal in its war against the armed group. It seems that Israel, which agreed in the past to conduct unbalanced prisoner exchange deals, including the deal to free Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit from Hamas captivity in 2011, in exchange for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, has changed its strategy, as Hamas wants to release Hundreds of prisoners, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right partners oppose this.

The exile of Sinwar and his group may be a magic solution for both parties, as Israel, on the one hand, has reduced the burden of pursuing the most dangerous elements of the movement, in addition to the potential embarrassment that the potential fall of new victims will cause it in front of world public opinion, which can no longer tolerate so much bloodshed.

Israel also wants to keep part of its forces on the ground. To continue destroying the extensive tunnel network, eliminating missile launchers, and pursuing militants; In other words, dismantling the military structure of the Hamas movement, within the framework of its goal of destroying its capabilities. In return, Hamas wants Israel to adhere to a permanent ceasefire, before it begins negotiating the release of all hostages in various stages.

The exile of Sinwar and his group may be a magical solution for both parties, as Israel, on the one hand, has lightened the burden of pursuing the most dangerous elements of the movement, in addition to the embarrassment that the potential fall of new victims will cause it in front of world public opinion, which can no longer tolerate so much bloodshed. On the other hand, Sinwar’s exit will lead to the Hamas Political Bureau regaining its control over the movement, thus containing Al-Qassam and managing a political process, necessarily followed by a set of concessions, the political wing of which will try to minimize its losses to the maximum extent possible.