وطن نيوز
The most important decision Netanyahu will make before the elections has nothing to do with the elections themselves. This is the nature of political life in Israel: what matters is not election campaign slogans, nor the economic situation, nor the results of television debates, what matters is eternal war. Shimon Peres made several decisions before the 1996 elections; A military operation in Lebanon and the assassination of “Engineer” Yahya Ayyash. This was like the wing of a butterfly, leading to a series of developments, which in turn led to a security storm and, ultimately, an electoral defeat. In 1981, Menachem Begin ordered the bombing of the nuclear reactor in Iraq, and won. In 2015, Netanyahu launched an unprecedented direct confrontation with the White House over the nuclear deal with Iran, including a visit to Washington to address Congress, effectively declaring war on Barack Obama. Prime Ministers have always claimed, and will continue to claim, that what is most sacred about security has nothing to do with parochial politics or an electoral timetable. We, who elect them, know the truth: at best, our leaders find it difficult to separate the interests of the state from their personal interests. At worst, they don’t want to separate them. This is the case with Netanyahu: he sees his personal survival as the state’s interest. During his criminal trial this week, an anonymous person in the audience stood up and said: “Excuse me! The Prime Minister is fighting for our lives, for our renaissance, and this is what you are doing? Prime Minister, I would like to thank you and your wife Sarah and your children who are doing everything they can for us, and this is what you are doing. Shame on you!” According to the Seventh Eye report, Netanyahu was so impressed by this carefully worded, spontaneous and unplanned remark, that came without invitation from above, that he addressed the judges to endorse the “real thing” that the spontaneous admirer had “expressed.” Skepticism has always been there; Today it has witnessed an industrial revolution. The culmination of this revolution was an ugly game surrounding hostage deals, including malicious leaks of secret positions in negotiations, in an attempt to scuttle the deal, while Israelis were tortured in the Gaza Strip. There, the barrier of shame disappears completely. This week I spoke with a high-ranking official who was present at government meetings during the war. It is difficult to describe his feelings of shame and anxiety. He said: “The ministers were sitting there, laughing among themselves, planning army ambushes, plots against the Israeli army, the Shin Bet, or the Ministry of Defense, and we heard, and they also heard, about soldiers who were killed before the meeting. This did not move them.” When opportunism prevails, decisions on war and death are also made purely politically motivated. The most important decision Netanyahu is about to make is whether or not to renew the war in the Gaza Strip. This is a decision that could determine the outcome of the election. It is clear that Hamas has not yet agreed to complete and profound disarmament. At this stage, no final agreement has been reached between Hamas and the United States in the talks held in Cairo; The West suspects that Hamas members are stalling to learn the fate of their ally, Iran. The United States made clear to Hamas that it would not agree in any way to link the results of the talks with Iran to the Gaza Strip, and that there is only one vision for the Strip: the twenty-point plan presented by Trump, and the peace council established by the American administration. This is the incentive. The stick is the possibility of giving Israel the freedom to occupy the Gaza Strip. So far, this pressure has not resulted in any breakthrough. The War of Attrition At the same time, Israel’s security services are witnessing a state of chaos. A large portion of senior officials does not want to criticize the government over attrition, the state of stocks, the deterioration of training, the breakdown of discipline, and most important of all – restrictions on the use of military force. This is cowardice. Another part of the senior officials was addicted to endless war. Ben-Gurion’s security doctrine, including lightning wars, is completely alien to them. This second part does not understand that endless war is an expression of failure. If we restored deterrence, there would be no need for eternal war. Therefore, dangerous talk is being raised about “disarming Hezbollah,” even though this is impossible without occupying all of Lebanon. Or, as it is rumored, that within “a few months” the Strait of Hormuz will be closed (as if that is possible given the current global energy market and the political situation in the United States), and thus the Ayatollah’s regime will automatically fall. Trust Mossad. Now, the new talk: Let’s occupy Gaza. It is the epicenter of the war, and there are no longer Israeli hostages restricting the freedom of action of the Israeli army. In addition, the Hamas regime in western Gaza is strengthening its ranks and rebuilding its forces. This is the same Hamas that refuses to fulfill its disarmament obligations. The war began in Gaza, and it can end there. Israel will occupy the Strip, cleanse it, and then hand it over to the US Peace Council. Ask yourself: Which officer will stand up these days, two and a half years after October 7, and say: It is better not to occupy Gaza, the price will be high, and therefore, Hamas must be left ruling there at this stage? The answer: No one wants to appear as if they took a time machine back to September 2023 and learned nothing. October 7 held many lessons. The political lesson in the defense establishment: Always press for the offensive. till the end. This is the swing of the pendulum. The defense establishment is making up for years of failure, blindness, and compromise. Quite the opposite: a constant attack, everywhere, on every target. drain. Strategic Collapse A few weeks ago, the Mind Institute, headed by Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin, published a document entitled “Warning Paper.” The authors of the document stated at the beginning that “Israel is on a multifaceted path of attrition that threatens its security.” They added that they seek to “raise the banner of danger and provide a strategic warning that the State of Israel is single-handedly paving a military path that will not only jeopardize its military achievements in the war, but will also serve the strategic logic of its enemies, and may lead to a strategic collapse. Israel has no means to hide its enemies from existence or to radically erase their hostility toward it.” They explain how Israel’s comparative advantages, which work in short, skillful wars, disappear completely in a long war. In the first place, the document runs counter to a prevailing populist conception of security: “Seeking to completely eliminate all threats by military means in various arenas is dangerous. Two years of war with Hamas – Israel’s weakest and smallest enemy – has demonstrated that Israel’s ability to completely eliminate threats by purely military means is extremely limited.” The document is built on solid foundations, but many in the security establishment find it difficult to comprehend reality. Its senior officials look at Iran and see that the regime has survived, engages in stubborn negotiations at every opportunity, and, reasonably assuming that some sort of agreement is reached, will receive financial support and additional legitimacy. In Lebanon, Hezbollah and its allies have already received Iranian support, and the West already acknowledges the possibility of linking the end of the war in Iran to forcing Israel to end its offensive operations in Lebanon. There is only one arena left in which victory can be imposed, ostensibly, if the Trump administration agrees. This arena is Gaza. The Israeli army is making its preparations, and there is an entire movement in the General Staff demanding the complete elimination of Hamas. There is also a political controversy: the peace council cannot rehabilitate the Gaza Strip without neutralizing Hamas as a military force. The Gulf states and Saudi Arabia are not willing to invest money in rebuilding the Strip, for fear that everything will be destroyed again by Hamas within two or three years. Recently, the Israelis contacted American officials and began exploring the possibility of launching an occupation in Gaza. They were met with, to say the least, a lack of enthusiasm. But this is just the beginning. There are high hopes. What was not achieved in Iran, and was not achieved in Lebanon, Gaza is supposed to achieve by closing the front with unequivocal success, a success that cannot be doubted. A clear picture of victory. For those who are concerned, Gaza lives in extreme misery. Extreme poverty, a population density never seen before in the Middle East, a record number of orphans, slum cities, piles of garbage, diseases, and flocks of rats. The enthusiasm and opportunity to enhance its strength should not be underestimated, but its capabilities are currently very limited. Now there are those who suggest returning there, with different formations. The political leadership – even the current extremist leadership – does not know how to deal with the security establishment, which continues to press for action, whether in Lebanon or Gaza. One minister complained to me: “They try to overtake us from the right, all the time. Where is their responsibility?” No one expects ministers to take responsibility anymore – not even themselves. A cynical computer game. Such are Netanyahu’s political considerations. If he goes to war in the Gaza Strip, it may serve as a painful reminder to public opinion that Hamas – the same Hamas that committed the most horrific massacre in the history of the Jewish people since the Holocaust – still exists. Nearly three years later, Naftali Bennett will say so, and Netanyahu will be forced to fight another war in the Gaza Strip. Therefore, Netanyahu must be absolutely certain that he will achieve a real “victory.” But what is this victory? Hamas members lay down their weapons and flee barefoot towards Egypt? Or a complete military occupation of the Strip and the establishment of military government buildings? Here’s a crucial question for Netanyahu politically: Does the prime minister know that the government will support him for a new war in Gaza? If he does not get the green light to continue until the end, it is better for him to avoid launching a new operation in the Gaza Strip. If the matter ends as Hezbollah did in Lebanon, Netanyahu will come out of this story in a very bad light. In general, Netanyahu realizes from opinion polls that the people are fed up, and that he wants to see tangible achievements, not an endless war. Renewed war in Gaza may increase tensions. On the other hand, Netanyahu’s advisors will say that war always strengthens the right, and your personal power as well. If war breaks out, the focus will be on the Gaza Strip, on the necessity of fighting Hamas, and on Israeli army fighters. All hopes of Bennett or Eisenkot in addressing the issues of housing or the ultra-Orthodox world (the worst item in the formation of the current coalition from the point of view of public opinion) will quickly be dashed. If they attack the new operation, they will be described as collaborating with Hamas. If they remain silent, they will be marginalized. If they support it, it will do them no good. If Hamas remains in control of Gaza in October 2026, Netanyahu’s campaign is expected to be severely damaged, so this should almost always be prevented. This is a heated political debate. This operation takes place in a closed space, like a very cynical computer game, as if it has nothing to do with human rights, including regular and reserve soldiers, who would be severely shocked if an order were issued to do so. It also ignores the larger crisis Israel currently faces: the crisis of international legitimacy. The government is in complete denial. Since October 7, the security establishment has thought only in the narrowest terms of security: eliminating threats; As for the strategy? Whew! It is quite clear that another war in the Gaza Strip will result in massive numbers of innocent deaths, especially given the current population density in the Strip, and it is also clear that the IDF operation will benefit those who take advantage of Israel’s fatigue in an attempt to crush its already precarious standing in the world. For years, considerations of legitimacy have been ignored in favor of “restoring deterrence” or “removing threats.” The prevailing assumption was that after the expected victory, it would be possible to repair the severe damage done to Israel. But this assumption has failed miserably. Israel’s position has been eroded to the ground, and much of this damage occurred after the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip. Public war-mongering in Iran, including repeated talk of regime change, was the final straw for many Americans. Israel was a non-partisan issue in America, then it became a partisan issue; Only the Republicans were prepared to make any effort for it. The danger is that it will soon become a nonpartisan issue again; An issue that enjoys bipartisan support, with unanimous support for its rejection. This, in many ways, represents an emergency for Israel’s national interest. But the future of the State of Israel and the strategic crisis are not the only considerations compared to the calculations of personal survival. Soon Netanyahu will have to make a decision. If he wants a war in Gaza, he will need an intense promotional campaign in the White House, and to prepare Israeli public opinion for a comprehensive military advance. If he concludes that the fighting in Gaza is merely political damage, the Strip will disappear from the discourse until after the elections. Nadav Eyal Yedioth Ahronoth 5/8/2026
