Hani Al-Masry wrote: There are many prominent political and military commentators who said that the countdown to the war has begun, to the point that the most prominent of them predicted last Sunday that this would take place within two weeks and no more.

Of course, I, most Palestinians and others hope this is true; Because this war aims to annihilate the Palestinians, displace them, and liquidate their cause in all its aspects, and it must stop. It is enough to kill and wound hundreds of Palestinians every day. Also, all our people in the Gaza Strip suffer from hunger, thirst, insecurity, fear of the unknown, the spread of diseases and epidemics, and the lack of medicines and appropriate treatment.

Despite the continuing humanitarian catastrophe for the fourth month in a row, the legendary Palestinian steadfastness and valiant resistance, and the expansion of opposition to the war, to the point of the continuation of the global popular uprising, which affected the positions of many governments, especially in Western countries that began to at least publicly demand an end to the war, The war is still continuing, and the countdown has not begun. Expecting otherwise is a kind of projection of wishes and desires onto the ground.

The evidence for this conclusion is what is happening in the field and the statements of the Israeli political and military leaders, which are united by their adherence to the continuation of the war for a period ranging from months to a full year, and the differences between them regarding the form of the war and the day following it.

The continuation of Palestinian steadfastness and valiant resistance and the human, economic, moral and psychological losses of the occupation, with the increasing external pressures, especially from world public opinion, and the escalation of internal Israeli disputes, to the point where a crack began to occur in the Israeli consensus on the war, and the Israeli forces moved from the second stage of the war to the third stage. In northern Gaza, the withdrawal of brigades and the return of aspects of life to Israeli facilities, including the opening of universities in Israel, and the beginning of returning Palestinian workers in small numbers; All of these are indicators that suggest that the countdown to the war has begun, but the massacres and escalation taking place in the center and south of the Gaza Strip, and the announcement of the continuation of work to achieve what the Israeli army did in the north in Khan Yunis, where the main force of the resistance and the political and military leadership of the Hamas movement are located, according to the occupation’s claim, do not This indicates that the war will end within two weeks, and is even likely to continue longer than that.

The Lebanese front is on fire

Also, what is happening on the Lebanese front after the assassination of Saleh Al-Arouri, in the southern suburbs, the fortified fortress of Hezbollah, and the party and its leader Hassan Nasrallah pledged to respond, bombing an Israeli military air base with 62 missiles and using modern weapons for the first time, and Hezbollah considers this the beginning of the response. It is not the end of the escalating Israeli response and the release of statements by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, his Defense Minister Yoav Galant, and the Chief of Staff of the occupation army that there will be an escalation in the Israeli response on the Lebanon front, and that Israel cannot remain in this situation, and that the rope of diplomatic efforts is short, and that Israel It will do whatever is necessary to force Hezbollah to withdraw from the presence of its forces on the border and from continuing its bombing of various Israeli sites.

This is at a time when American, European and French efforts failed to convince Hezbollah to stop the support war, stressing that it does not want a comprehensive war but will fight it if it is imposed on it. It is ready to reach a diplomatic solution that liberates the occupied Lebanese territories and demarcates the land borders, but this will not be negotiated. Before stopping the Israeli war on Gaza.

The Houthis are on the lookout

At the same time, the Red Sea crisis continues; The Yemeni Houthis are committed to what they pledged to target any Israeli ships or ships heading to Israel. This disrupted navigation in one of the most important international corridors, and this had major economic impacts. Which led to the establishment of an international coalition that includes twenty countries to confront this threat, and the threat that the continuation of this bombing of ships, oil tankers and goods will lead to the use of force to prevent this from continuing. It is true that this threat so far is more of a serious threat, but it does not rule out the possibility of escalation and sliding into war, especially since there is no significant Arab participation in this alliance. Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar did not participate in it, and demanded the adoption of diplomatic solutions and work to stop the war on Gaza, but until now this issue has been stuck, and it is pushing or a candidate for escalation or calm.

Blinken’s tour is like its predecessors

What is condemning and shameful for the US administration is that Secretary of State Anthony Blinken’s fifth tour to Israel and the fourth to the region, like previous tours, will have its primary focus on preventing the war from spreading to other fronts. As for the Gaza war, it could continue, with demands to take into account the reduction of casualties and the flow of humanitarian aid. Blinken did not accept stopping the war, but rather called for a truce that would enable Israel to prolong it, and he emphasized that his country would do everything necessary to release the Israeli prisoners. As for the Palestinians, it is enough to reduce the number of their deaths, alleviate their human suffering, and keep their prisoners, who are increasing behind bars every day.

We have to believe that the occupying state is ready to pay a high price for the war this time. Because there is an Israeli consensus that its failure to achieve a clear strategic victory that achieves its goals, or to go a long way on this path, will harm its existence, future role and strategic position, and expose it to a new maximum flood at the hands of the Palestinians or others, or as Defense Minister Gallant said, there is no place for Israel in The Middle East if you do not win.

Two developments are critical to the end of the war

We can conclude that the war is nearing an end if there are two developments:

The first: and what is most important, is that the American administration reaches the conclusion that the continuation of the war could cause more damage to the standing and interests of the Americans and Israel than the benefits it brings to them. The most important thing is that it move from giving advice and displaying differences publicly to the stage of exerting pressure and not supplying weapons and ammunition, and if we return Regarding the previous Palestinian-Israeli confrontations, we find that the American administration begins to support what it calls “Israel’s right to defend itself,” then advises stopping the war, and finally demands that it be stopped, and gives the Israeli governments a margin to achieve that. However, we have not reached the beginning of serious pressure on Israel, but merely Tips and publishing Israeli differences publicly, we can reach him, and then the countdown to war begins.

Second: The loss of the Israeli consensus on the war, and this has not happened so far. Yes, there are increasing doubts about Israel’s ability to achieve its goals in the war, and there are also cracks in the consensus on the war, and differences over priorities between releasing Israeli prisoners through negotiation and exchange deals and continuing the aggression to release them by force, or even if the prisoners were sacrificed on the basis that their lives were not More precious than the lives of soldiers and officers, in addition to the beginning of a return to division in Israel over the identity of the state, the role of religion, and the Supreme Court after its decision to reject the judicial reforms that the government intended to pass.

There is also some disagreement over the day after the war, but without exaggerating these disagreements. If we exclude the most extremist ministers who demand the occupation of the Gaza Strip and the killing or displacement of Palestinians, we will find that the central tendency in the government, and even in the opposition, wants to maintain Israel’s security control after War, imposing a formula closer to the formula in effect in areas classified as (B) in the West Bank, forming a local administration, maintaining buffer zones, and refusing the return of authority until it is “renewed,” and this is the secret name for transforming it from a cooperative authority into a client authority.

Clearly, the Israeli leaders are fighting the war jointly, and they do not disagree about the suffering it leads to for the Palestinians, but they do not trust each other, and the rift has begun to grow within their ranks, and they are exchanging accusations against who bears responsibility for the major failure: is it the political leadership, the military security leadership, or both? . This disagreement appeared at the last government meeting when they almost came into conflict over the backdrop of some ministers’ refusal for the Chief of Staff to form a committee to investigate the reasons for the failure on October 7th. The lack of trust has reached the point that Benny Gantz and his party ministers boycotted the last government meeting in protest against not discussing the next day’s plan, and against the politicization of positions instead of giving priority to unity and security, and that Netanyahu is considering approving a law that would allow ministers, military personnel, and others to be put under a lie detector test to find out who is… He leaks what goes on in government meetings.

The bottom line is that the events of the field, especially the continuation of Palestinian steadfastness and valiant resistance and the resulting human and other losses, will be imposed first and foremost and before anything else.

The countdown to war has not begun, but it is approaching

The moment of reaching the countdown to the war is approaching, but we have not reached it yet, because the Netanyahu government, especially its president, has a personal interest in prolonging the war, in order to try to achieve a victory before stopping it, so that this will help it when the investigation begins about responsibility for the historical failure that occurred. It was noon on the 7th of October, but the countdown was approaching as a result of a new development of utmost importance, which was the filing by South Africa (and not an Arab or Islamic country or the State of Palestine) of a lawsuit against Israel at the International Court of Justice for committing the crime of genocide, and this crime is the only one that The Hague Court is required to issue an urgent ruling within a matter of weeks (there are two hearings next Thursday and Friday), and that its decision in this crime only is not advisory but rather a binding decision for the countries that signed the Convention (more than 150 countries, including Israel). If Israel does not adhere to it as expected, it will be globally condemned. The countries that signed the agreement will not be able to deal with Israel as they are dealing with it now.

The danger lies in the issuance of a decision by the highest international court to stop the war immediately, and to investigate the validity of the claim of committing the crime of genocide, is that it will make the American administration and the European countries that support Israel very embarrassed, and if Israel does not stop the war, Washington will be more embarrassed by using its veto when the matter is presented. On the Security Council; Because it will not be against another country, but rather against a judicial ruling, after which stronger campaigns will begin to hold Israel accountable, punish it, and impose sanctions on it. They will succeed, and dealing with Israel as a state above international law will stop.

Based on all of this, the Israeli government dealt differently than the previous times it faced lawsuits in the High Court of Justice, which issued the advisory order regarding the construction of the wall, a political and legal achievement that the Palestinian leadership did not exploit and exhausted the possibilities to benefit from. So the Israeli government decided to present its defense, and chose a capable British lawyer to do the job. Netanyahu asked the ministers to hold their tongues so as not to implicate Israel. Because the Hague Court can use extremist statements that talk about exterminating, killing, and displacing Palestinians and not distinguishing between them, under the pretext that they are all terrorists and Nazis, as evidence of condemnation and proof that there is a hidden intention to convict.

Although the chances of success in convicting Israel of a war crime are high, there are not few risks of failure, as the president of the court is American, and previously held a high position in the US State Department, and she and other judges, as a result of pressure and blackmail, may violate the requirements of justice, and may be subject to pressure. From the rulers of her country and from the pro-Israel lobbies in America and the whole world, especially Europe. Therefore, one should not be reassured by the result under the pretext that the law and the judiciary are far from the influence of politics, politicians, and interests. This is true in a relative way, not absolutely, so it is very useful for other countries to join, especially Arab and Islamic countries. And Europe to call on South Africa, as Malaysia and Turkey did, and it is very useful to conduct global campaigns that clarify with conclusive evidence that Israel committed the crime of genocide and countless other major crimes, and must be punished for them.