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W6nnews.com ==== وطن === تاريخ النشر – 2025-10-12 03:00:00
A safe haven for all economies around the world Copied by Abdel Dayem Nour Gold prices rose to their highest level ever, in the absence of any signs of resolving the US government shutdown crisis, amid growing expectations of a reduction in interest rates in the United States this month. During last week’s trading, futures prices for the yellow metal for December delivery rose by 0.3%, or $12.9, at $3,989.20 per ounce, after touching a record level of $4,000 earlier in the last sessions of last week. While the dollar index – which measures the performance of the US currency against a basket of six major currencies – added about 0.15% to trade at 98.25 points. According to a report published by Bloomberg, this investment rush reflects gold’s historical position as an asset that preserves value and provides liquidity in times of turmoil. Gold among its supporters and opponents. Gold has always been considered a haven for investors over the centuries thanks to its ability to maintain value and the ease of transporting and selling it anywhere, but this view is not unanimous. The wealthy famous investor Warren Buffett described gold in a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 2011 as a sterile asset, adding: If you owned an ounce of gold forever, you would still own one ounce in the end. However, the current demand for the precious metal was a direct result of a combination of factors reported by Bloomberg, namely: the escalation of the trade war led by Trump. The accumulation of US debt to record levels has raised concerns about the sustainability of public finances. Increased pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Data collected by the agency showed that the total holdings of gold-backed exchange-traded funds rose at the beginning of September to the highest level since June 2023. The role of central banks Bloomberg indicates that the bullish wave for gold began in early 2024, driven by huge purchases from central banks, especially in emerging markets seeking to reduce their dependence on the US dollar. According to the World Gold Council, central banks purchased more than a thousand tons of gold in 2024 for the third year in a row, making these institutions holding nearly a fifth of the gold extracted throughout history. This pace accelerated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the West’s freezing of Russian assets, which revealed the fragility of foreign reserves in the face of sanctions, and prompted many countries to diversify their stocks into gold. Although the pace of purchases slowed as prices rose, the role of central banks remained the mainstay of the uptrend. In parallel, the report pointed to the cultural depth of gold in India and China, where the acquisition of bullion and jewelry is a deep-rooted tradition that symbolizes prosperity and security. Indian households alone own about 25,000 tons of gold, more than 5 times the US reserves of Fort Knox (which is the storehouse for most US gold reserves). This popular demand often provides a price floor when interest from financial investors declines. Potential Risks The report pointed out that ownership of gold is not without cost, as investors face storage, protection, and insurance expenses, in addition to price differences between global centers. Earlier in the year, fear of gold being included in tariffs caused futures prices on the New York COMEX to be significantly higher than spot prices in London. This difference prompted a global race to transport bullion to the United States to generate profits from the price differences of hundreds of millions of dollars. But this wave stopped last April after the Trump administration clarified that gold would be excluded from customs duties. Despite subsequent controversy sparked by statements by the US Customs Service regarding some bullion, Trump himself intervened to confirm that the metal would not be subject to taxes. COMEX data showed that inventories rose by more than 75% from the beginning of 2025 until the end of August, and Bloomberg explained that the movement of the metal across the world is more complex than believed, as the standard specifications for bullion differ between centers. In London, the standard is 400 ounces, while Comex contracts require bars weighing 100 ounces or one kilogram. This discrepancy forces bullion to be remelted in Swiss refineries to produce the required sizes before being shipped to the United States, creating bottlenecks as pressure to reallocate inventories increases. Gold achieves an unprecedented jump. The expert specializing in gold affairs, Dr. Hani Fayez Hamad, believes that gold prices have jumped in recent days to record levels, exceeding $4,000 per ounce for the first time in history, with an increase of 34 percent since the beginning of this year. According to JP Morgan’s expectations, prices are likely to rise further, exceeding the $4,500 barrier during the coming period, in light of continued strong demand from central banks and investors. He stressed that this historic rise is not only related to a passing wave of investment, but rather reflects a shift in the behavior of countries and financial institutions towards the US dollar and its bonds. After the dollar had been synonymous with stability for many decades, doubts are growing about its future, especially in light of the escalation of US debt and the worsening geopolitical and trade crises. Dr. Hani Hamad believes that what we are witnessing today is a direct reflection of the loss of confidence in the international financial system, adding: It is more than just a loss of confidence. We are facing a state of great uncertainty in the global economic system. Central banks have increased their gold reserves in recent years, led by China, which reflects fear of US sanctions and the use of the dollar as a safe haven weapon for economies. Expert Dr. Hani says: Gold is no longer just a traditional safe haven, but rather has become a safe haven for all economies around the world. We are facing a transitional phase to reshape the global economic system, and gold will play a primary role in it. Dr. Hani expected that gold prices would trade within a range of $4,500 to $4,800 per ounce by the end of this year, after being at the level of only $2,100 at the beginning of April 2024. This increase means a jump of nearly $2,000 within one year, which reflects an exceptional performance that places gold at the forefront of the most profitable investment assets globally this year. The gold expert added: By calculating the percentage, gold has achieved an annual return approaching 45%, which far exceeds the performance of other financial markets such as stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies that have witnessed sharp fluctuations. In his explanation of the reasons for the rise in global gold prices, Dr. Hani Hamad explained that there is a combination of factors behind this sharp upward trend, most notably the escalation of geopolitical concerns and the instability of monetary policies in a number of major economies, most notably the United States of America, which prompts investors to search for gold as a safe haven. He pointed out that geopolitical tensions, increasing regional conflicts, in addition to the slowdown in the Chinese economy and supply chain crises, are all factors that support the rise in demand for gold and increase price momentum. $5,000 per ounce. Dr. Hatti Hamad, an expert in gold affairs, expects that gold prices will reach $5,000 per ounce before 2027. In the context of his presentation of gold price forecasts in the coming years, Dr. Hani Hamad confidently stated that reaching the level of $5,000 per ounce may be achieved faster than expected. He said: While the previous goal was estimated to be achieved between 2028 and 2030, the current indicators prompt me to adjust my expectations to a year. 2027 at the latest, and perhaps even earlier, if the current economic and financial pressures continue. Dr. Hani stressed that now is not the right time to exit investing in gold. He added: Whoever owns gold should keep it as a long-term investment. For those planning to enter the market, the current timing is considered a good opportunity to buy before the start of the next upward wave. It should be noted that gold prices have always been a mirror of the state of the global economy. Following the global financial crisis in 2008, prices jumped to about $1,920 an ounce by 2011 as investors searched for safe havens, but prices later fell as the global economy recovered and central banks controlled inflation rates. Today, we are facing a different scene, as the accumulation of sovereign debt, the erosion of confidence in paper currencies, and the increase in global demand for gold by central banks – especially in China, India, and Russia – are all factors that push prices to continue rising at an accelerating pace. Gold is a safe haven. Gold remains one of the few investment assets that has proven its ability to maintain value and even achieve gains during financial crises. In light of the increasing risks in global markets, investors continue to pump liquidity into global gold markets, which enhances the upward trend. According to the latest reports from the World Gold Council, central banks’ purchases of gold hit record levels during 2024, in an attempt to diversify reserves and reduce dependence on the US dollar. According to precious metals analysts at the World Gold Council (WGC), the outlook for gold prices over the next 18 months looks positive. Precious metal prices rose to record levels in the first half of 2025, after a 20% increase in 2024, the rally was led by gold, driven by a weak dollar, interest rate volatility, a highly turbulent economic and geopolitical environment, as well as strong investment demand, write Jitendra Khadan, chief economist in the World Gold Council’s forecast team, and Kaltrina Timaj, research analyst. Analysts noted that one of the frequently asked questions from investors is: Has gold reached its peak, or does it have enough fuel to continue rising? Using their Gold Valuation Framework, the World Gold Council analyzed what current market expectations indicate for gold’s performance in the second half of 2025, as well as a variety of drivers that could push gold prices up or down. They wrote: If the macroeconomic forecasts of economists and market participants are correct, our analysis suggests that gold may move sideways with a slight upward bias – with an additional 0-5% increase in the second half of the year. However, the economy rarely develops according to consensus. If economic and financial conditions deteriorate, exacerbating stagflation pressures and geopolitical tensions, safe haven demand could increase significantly, pushing gold prices higher by another 10-15% from current levels. On the other hand, widespread and sustained conflict resolution – something that seems unlikely in the current environment – would see gold reverse its 12-17% gains this year. Gold’s stunning performance The World Gold Council notes that gold’s performance has been record-breaking so far in 2025. Gold ended the first half of the year as one of the best-performing major assets, rising about 26% during the period. Analysts noted that gold hit 26 new all-time highs in the first half of 2025, having already surpassed 40 new all-time highs in 2024. Analysts said this outstanding performance was the result of a combination of factors, including a weak dollar, Yield fluctuations are due to expectations of future interest rate cuts, and increased geopolitical tensions – some of which are directly or indirectly related to US trade policy. They added: Stronger demand also came from increased trading activity over-the-counter (OTC), exchanges and exchange-traded funds (ETF). This resulted in an average daily trading volume for gold in the first half of the year of $329 billion – the highest semi-annual figure ever recorded. Central banks also contributed to buying at a strong pace – even if it did not reach the record levels of previous quarters. The World Gold Council notes that one of the most significant macro themes so far this year has been the weak performance of the US dollar, which posted its worst annual start since 1973, which was also reflected in the weak performance of US Treasuries, which have been synonymous with safety for more than a century. However, flows into US Treasuries faltered in April in a context of rising uncertainty. On the contrary, demand for gold-backed ETFs was particularly strong in the first half of the year, with significant inflows in all regions, experts said. By the end of the first half of the year, the combined effect of rising gold prices and investors flocking to safe-haven assets raised the total assets under management (AUM) of gold-backed ETFs globally by 41% to $383 billion. Overall holdings increased by a staggering 397 tonnes (equivalent to $38 billion) to 3,616 tonnes – the highest monthly level since August 2022. Trade-related and other geopolitical risks played a big role, not just directly, but also by driving changes in the dollar, interest rates and broader market volatility – all of which added to gold’s appeal as a safe haven, they added. Overall, these factors contributed about 16% to gold’s returns over the past six months.
